Some weeks the first two options are full of display pieces that immediately catch your eye. Some weeks feel like we’re getting leftovers and it’s hard to get too excited about what’s on offer. Then there’s this week, which feels like a confusing grab bag of options. There are quite a few top starters out there, which is great. But there are also a lot of guys who have disappointed so far with good matchups, and guys who have overdone it so far with bad ones. I hope the games this week will help us to be clear in the coming weeks.
The following are our guesses at the time of writing as to who will start two games this week, but the weather, injuries, and secret team management mean they are just that: guesses. To stay as up-to-date as possible, consult Rudy Gamble’s invaluable Streamonator.
Chocolate Chip Cookies (A Must-Start)
They are the kings of the cookie world for a reason. A warm, freshly baked chocolate chip cookie makes you feel good. It’s kind of like setting your rosters you know you’re getting two this week from these guys.
| It’s a jar | The beginning of the beginning | The Second Beginning |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler, PHI | @BOS | @BAL |
| Corbin Burnes, Bal | @TTB | @PHI |
| Logan Gilbert, Sea | CHW | TEX |
| Pablo Lopez, Min | COL | OAK |
| Bryan Woo, Sea | CHW | TEX |
| Carlos Rodon, NYY | @KC | @BOS |
| Paul Skenes, Pit | @STL | @COL |
| Jack Flaherty, Det | WSH | @HOU |
| Dylan Cease, SD | OAK | @NYM |
- I know people who have Pablo Lopez in their plans are frustrated. Even though he’s off to a less than stellar start so far, I still believe in him, especially with these matchups. And, even more, Streamonator still believes in him. In fact, my fourth place in these rankings is not promising compared to the computer, which has it at the top.
- Cease is one that I have less than Streamonator, which made him third. I can’t completely get over the fact that he has given up 3 or more earned runs in five straight starts. He always has the stuff to be the ace you want him to be, and this week he has the kind of matchups you want to see. But what are we going to do?
Sugar Cookies (Must Start)
They went well. You could certainly do a lot worse than having these guys on your list, but don’t expect it to be spectacular.
| It’s a jar | The beginning of the beginning | The Second Beginning |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo, Mia | @NYM | @WSH |
| Chris Paddack, Min | COL | OAK |
| Hunter Greene, Cin | CLE | The MIL |
| Jose Berrios, Tor | @MIL | CLE |
| Zach Eflin, TB | CHC | @ATL |
| Seth Lugo, KC | NYY | @LAD |
| Ryan Pepiot, TB | BAL | @ATL |
- Streamonator rated Paddack as the fifth best starting pitcher this week. I’m sorry, but I don’t buy it. I didn’t drop him to the point of Oatmeal Raisin, though, that has more to do with his matchups than any real confidence in him as a striker.
- We currently have Greene scheduled to make two starts in a five-game week. I’m including him here because the Reds may be doing that, but I’d be surprised if they didn’t use Nick Martinez or someone else on Sunday. If so, Greene will have a second start the following week instead.
- Lugo is a different kind of Paddack, to that Streamonator you hate it with him this week. I can see that he has been overperforming with his metrics so far, and his matchups are just not good. It may be human hubris, but I just can’t put him in the Fortune Cookies this week.
Oatmeal Raisin Cookies (Can Start)
This is not for everyone. These are the jars that can be a happy surprise, or they can ruin your church. Step slowly.
| It’s a jar | The beginning of the beginning | The Second Beginning |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman, NYY | @KC | @BOS |
| Nick Pivetta, Bos | PHI | NYY |
| Albert Suarez, Bal | @TB | PHI |
| Spencer Arrighetti, Hou | @SF | DET |
| Taylor Megill, NYM | MIA | SD |
| Brady Singer, KC | NYY | @LAD |
| Miles Mikolas, StL | The PIT | @CHC |
| Jameson Taillon, ChC | @TB | STL |
| Jose Soriano, LAA | @ARI | @SF |
- We expect Suarez to play twice this week, but this is being written before we have a definitive word on Cade Povich’s future. If the Orioles decide to cook up a six-man rotation this week, it will be one thing for Albert.
Fortune Cookies (Don’t Start)
Yes, they are technically cookies. Hold on, what does that little piece of paper say? “Bad times pass.” Oh. Oh well.
| It’s a jar | The beginning of the beginning | The Second Beginning |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Estes, Oak | @SD | @MIN |
| Kyle Harrison, SF | HOU | LAA |
| Jordan Montgomery, Ari | LAA | CHW |
| Colin Rea, Mil | TOR | CIN |
| Erick Fedde, ChW | @SEA | @ARI |
| Dane Dunning, Tex | @LAD | @SEA |
| James Paxton, LAD | TEX | KC |
| JP Sears, Oak | @SD | @MIN |
| Dakota Hudson, Col | @MIN | The PIT |
| Patrick Corbin, Wsh | @DET | MIA |
| Jonathan Cannon, ChW | @SEA | @ARI |
- Last week I talked about my irrational desire to see what Joey Estes could do. He rewarded that curiosity with a good start against Seattle, but couldn’t make the second. So, again, I want to start him, even though I know I shouldn’t. And I can never in good conscience tell you that you should. I’m just being honest.
- Streamonator has Montgomery up near the border between Sugar and Oatmeal Raisin, but I can’t do it. He’s been a disaster lately. If anyone can help fix him, the White Sox can. But that’s a gamble your ratings may not be able to handle.
- It’s not clear what the Brewers’ plans are at the start of the week, but as of this writing we have listed Rea to do double duty.
- Even more than the Brewers, I don’t know what the White Sox plan to do. When Cannon was called up, it was assumed that he would take a replacement position. Then they used him to save three innings on Friday night, almost knocking him out of consideration to start the week. But, the White Sox. No matter who they throw in there, you don’t want it.
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