Using the Rest-of-Season Player Rater to Guide Another Trade Deadline Move

There has never been more data on anything at our fingertips than we have now. Between this coldness of data and the growing power of machine learning, there is nothing we feel we can’t predict. Take the weather, for example. While it’s an easy joke to go back to that it’s just a guess, well…you’re right. Except it’s a guess based on data and statistics, which the likes of Farmer’s Almanac would never have dreamed of. Although the forecasts are still very inaccurate, they are not at least as good as following better or more accurate procedures.

The social network uses this data to fine-tune its algorithms to predict what content you want to see on your timeline, what people should follow, what ads to show you, etc. (Watch “The Social Dilemma” on Netflix to find out more about how we do that. , people, are a tool, not social media). If their predictions were wrong, they would lose money and cease to exist. Anyone with a smartphone (which is almost everyone’s now) and screen time on social media knows that algorithmic predictions are right more often than wrong.

Heck, even Gray and Rudy and the Razzball masterminds spent hours in their mad scientist labs, creating the Hittertron, the Streamonator, and the Player Rater for the offseason. They will probably be right more often than wrong. But…can we find a potential “wrong” and make our fantasy teams benefit from it as we enter the fantasy realm at home?

This is my last article before the MLB trade deadline, which means your leagues are starting to get closer to their trade deadline as you make your push to secure a chip or at least complete the money. I’m going to look at each position and give you someone the ROS Player Rater (called PR all the way) says should be higher than my suggestions, and if I make a compelling case, maybe you can get some deals as your trade deadline approaches. The best part is that any of these people you try to find, you wouldn’t do it in a 1 to 1 trade because the idea can point you to your trade partner, so you can benefit both sides of any trade you propose. . Disclaimer: you idiot, you should be listening to a robot instead of me.

C: ROS PR has JT Realmuto as the 5th catcher going forward, but there are a number of Cs that are PR ranked lower than JTR that I would like to rank. For example, Ben Rice wayyyyy down to 20th overall, and I think he has a good chance of producing without JTR all the way. Rice doesn’t have enough PAs to merit any percentile stuff on Statcast, but he paints a pretty good picture of his ROS outlook. I get that the xStats aren’t very good, but Rice’s xBA is a thousandth of a point below JTR’s, and his batted ball data is almost as high as JTR’s (with Rice’s xSLG over 100 points higher than JTR’s) . It’s not just the quality of the ball being hit, either; Rice’s decisions at the plate are much higher than JTR’s by far, with a rush rate over 10% lower than JTR’s, the same K%, and double the BB%. Getting the 1B job keeps him in the lineup, the Yankees’ outfield is heaven for LHHs, and Rice is the best of all RHPs. There are others I like more than JTR, like Logan O’Hoppe, but the difference in PR is much closer than Rice’s value here.

1B: I wrote Matt Olson in the gladiator league, I think he will be my Russell Crowe and lead my team to a decisive victory. It’s July 26, and I’ve totally had it with Olson. Olson’s EV rating and HardHit% are still impressive, but none of that matters when you have a below-average Launch Angle, horrid squared-up%, and K%/Chase%/Whiff%/BB % really bad. PR has Olson 4th overall among 1B forwards, but I think he’s ranked 13th. Vinnie Pasquantino will surpass the Olson ROS. We can start with Vinnie’s elite K%/BB%–94th percentile. While he doesn’t hit the ball as hard as Olson, Pasquantino is still in the high 70s in HardHit% and average EV. Another way to look at it is that he doesn’t disrupt the ball as much as Olson does when he hits it, but he hits it more often, which gives him more opportunities to give us the stats we so desperately need. Olson is 8th in rebounding; Vinnie P is 94 percent. If it was May, I’d try to buy Olson, but it’s win time and this year’s data says Vinnie P will help you more than Olson in that life.

2B: PR has Luis Rengifo again Andres Gimenez back-to-back in ROS 4 and 5, and using one of Gray’s patented lines, o…………..kay. These guys do as much damage with a stick as my 13 year old does with his swimming noodle. I get that Rengifo can play every day since he has 74 positions to cover (no, not literally) and the Angels offense is terrible, but if they had other options, his best position would be Left Out, which means he’s on the bench. . Gimenez’s Statcast page is a work of art, if you can get around the diarrhea (don’t try). Instead, try Colt Keith open in size. Keith’s Statcast data is still rough, but over the last 8 weeks, he’s 7th in PR, ahead of Rengifo and wayyyyy ahead of Gimenez. This can be seen by anyone but a robot, though Jordan Westburg he’s 10th overall in PR, and I’d easily rank him above either Rengifo/Gimenez as well. His data is dangerous.

SS: I would do the same with Rengifo here but I have beaten that dead horse enough. And honestly, I don’t have many nits to pick in SS with ROS PR, so, onward.

3B: PR has Alex Bregman at 6 again Manny Machado at 7, but I’ll gladly take it Alec Bohm over both straight now. Bregman’s batted-ball data is Rengifoesque (albeit with elite plate decisions), while Machado suffers from Olsonitis (really good contact ability, but not making enough contact). Bohm’s IK% is only 14.5%, which is good, paired with 18% Whiff%, which is also very good, so it gives you an elite Breggy Eye. He’s 75 percent in both EV and HardHit%, with a 98 percent SquaredUp% and amazing xStats, giving you the Manny Whammy with a stick. If you smashed Bregman and Machado together, you would get Bohm–a sort of Malex Bregado Frankenstein, which is Bohm.

OF: I can probably downgrade Kyle Tucker (ROS PR: 4th among OF) is also likely to be sidelined for most of August, so that’s low-hanging fruit; the same with Michael Harris II (20 among THEM). Corbin Carroll it might also be low-hanging fruit, but at 7th overall and his pedigree, I think we can use him here as a guy to take guys. To begin, let’s take a look Brenton Doyle (29th among ROS PR). The man is 17/20 with a .279 average on July 25th! His xStats are great, 76th in Barrel%, 70th percentile in LA SweetSpot%, 63rd percentile in HardHit%, and he plays in Colorado–what am I missing here, other than Bud Black are you a doofus? I’m happy to trade Carroll outright for him, even though that ship may have sailed this year. And my God, Brent Rooker?!?! PR has a ROS of 43 but his Statcast page isn’t enough for the PR robot to soak the rag in WD-40, if you know what I mean. How in the world can PR have guys Masataka Yoshida, Ian Happagain Byron Buxton well before Rooker? I get what other players like Spencer Steer (21st ROS) and Randy Arozarena (ROS of 15) have stolen bases to help raise their value, but isn’t Rooker zero in on that by swiping six himself, competing for runs, smoking these guys for HRs and BAs? Doyle and Rooker have to be chased hard by more than half the guys ahead of them in the ROS PR.