Michael Toglia: Up and Coming Royals Player

Hello everyone, and welcome back to another episode of Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players.

The player I want to focus on this week is not the player I highlight. That’s because Michael Toglia for the Colorado Rockies is basically a one-tool player.

But that tool – his power – is very strong. And if you’re looking to add players to your team at this point in the season, you won’t find many multi-tool players sitting on the free agent fence or even the trade floor unless the team trades a star. getting a bunch of young/minor players.

Not so with Toglia. He is currently only owned in 27% of Yahoo leagues and 9% of ESPN leagues. I think the time is right to jump into Toglia and enjoy the power it will add to your team.

Let’s take a closer look at Toglia to see why I consider him an Upcoming Player of the Year.

Statistics

Adding Michael Toglia isn’t an obvious move right now, unlike adding Oakland’s red-hot Lawrence Butler. If you’re talking about Butler, you might be wondering why I’m talking about him so much.

Time to take the quick route here and explain why I’m not fully with Butler. He started last August with the A’s and slashed .2374/.262/.373 that month. In the four months leading up to July, his best batting average, OBP, and SLG in any of those months came in April of this season when he slashed .195/.303/.325 with two homers, five RBIs, and and two thefts.

But this month he suddenly became a Hall of Famer, slugging .412/.467/.956 with nine homers, 26 RBIs, and three steals. Those are impressive numbers, for sure. But they also appeared absent.

After four straight months of bad results, I’m not going to be fully on board with a player who has three good weeks of baseball under his belt. Butler has talent, I won’t deny that. But I’m not ready to buy what he’s selling.

Back to Michael Toglia now.

A Little History Lesson

The Rockies have loved Toglia since he was in high school in Gig Harbor, Washington. The team selected Toglia in the 35th round of the 2016 draft. However, Toglia decided to go to UCLA to improve his draft stock.

A smart move on his part.

In three seasons with the Bruins, Michael Toglia slashed .308/.410/.573 with 36 home runs and 156 RBI in 178 games. In his final season at UCLA he slashed .314/.392/.624 with 17 home runs and 65 RBIs in 63 games. Given the opportunity to draft Toglia again, the Rockies did by selecting him with the 23rd overall pick in 2019.

After sitting out 2020 due to the Covid shutdown of the minor leagues, Toglia reached Double-A in 2021 and hit a home run in the 2021 Futures Game.

Tools

If you’re expecting Michael Toglia to hit the mark, you’re going to be disappointed. Toglia entered Friday hitting .209 and is a career .196 hitter. Toglia actually has a good understanding of the strike zone, though. In college, he had a 14.3% walk rate and in the juniors, that number was 13.2%. However, in his career with the Rockies, the walks did not come easily as his rate was 7.4%.

And if you’re worried about strikes, Toglia probably isn’t very high on your list. While in Colorado, his strikeout rate is 33.1%, above the MLB average of 22.5%. His strikeout rate at UCLA was 22.5% and in the minors, it was 27.1%. So hitting has always been part of his game.

But Toglia won’t be a .209 hitter in his career. Since June 1, Toglia is slashing .242/.310/.537 with 23 earned runs, 12 home runs, and 29 RBIs in 42 games. His strikeout percentage is still high at 28.6%, but that’s below his season and career numbers. Meanwhile, his walk percentage is 9.5% during this stretch.

Michael Toglia is at a high level because he can hit the ball hard and far. So far this season his home run percentage is 7.4%, while the MLB average is 3.0%. For his work, it is 4.5%. Look at the image above and you see a lot of red where the power numbers are.

His xSLG, AEV, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit% are above average.

And his past numbers show that he hasn’t just tapped into an unknown power source. His AEV was 90.2 mph last season, above the MLB average of 88.3 mph. And his career Hard-Hit% is 47.4% (MLB average is 39%).

As Toglia has seen more MLB exposure, his power numbers (and his slash line) have improved. In 31 games in 2022, his HR% was 1.7%. In 45 games last year, it increased to 2.6% and now sits at 7.4%. Will he continue to hit home runs at a 7.4% clip? No. But there is no doubting his power.

Speed? Not much to see here. It’s not like Toglia is a lumberjack. He is athletic enough to play the right position for the Rockies in addition to playing first base. But stealing bases isn’t something you should count on a switch-hitter.

The future

Obviously I like the future of Michael Toglia. And if you’re resigned to the fact that he won’t help your team’s batting average or OBP, you have to love his future, too. Toglia has the potential to be a consistent 30-homer player, no matter what position he plays.

Playing at Coors Field wasn’t a big deal for Toglia. In 67 home games, he is hitting .221/.290/.401 with eight homers and 28 RBI. Away from Coors Field, he’s slashing .173/.225/.398 with 14 homers and 30 RBIs.

This season the division is almost the same. In 29 home games, Toglia has six home runs and 17 RBI while hitting .228/.295/.465. In 28 road games his production is a .190/.248/.526 slash line with 10 homers and 20 RBIs. So Coors Field certainly helps with average and OBP, but his SLG is basically the same at home or on the road over his career and is even better on the road this season.

If you need energy or want to add more to your team, Toglia is a player you should try to have in your team.