The Edmonton Oilers had a busy 2024 offseason, filled with offer sheets, trades, free agent signings, and more. After losing in the Stanley Cup Finals, some changes were expected, but for the most part, the roster remained the same. The forward core has improved, even with the departures of Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, and Dylan Holloway, and the scoring tandem has not changed. However, the defense has lost a few pieces, and barring any additional offseason moves, could be a major weakness this season.
The Protector is leaving
The Oilers lost three defensemen this offseason. The first is Cody Ceci, who was traded to the San Jose Sharks. Ceci spent the last three seasons in Edmonton, contributing 11 goals and 68 points in 237 regular season games with an average ice time of 20:21. Although he was heavily criticized for the defensive struggles last season, Ceci was an integral part of the team’s bottom four and will be missed.
The second out was Philip Broberg, who signed an offer sheet with St. Louis Blues. The 23-year-old, drafted eighth overall by the Oilers in 2019, has struggled to find a regular spot on an NHL roster. He was expected to jump fully into the club’s bottom four this season, although he was at risk due to his limited experience. While losing his youth and potential is unfortunate, choosing not to match the offer sheet at an average annual value of $4,580,917 (AAV) was a smart move.
Related: Oilers Signing Kevin Lankinen Could Solve Team’s Staffing Problems
Finally, Vincent Desharnais signed a 2-year AAV deal with the Vancouver Canucks. He played in 78 games for the Oilers last season, recording one goal and 10 assists. Although he played a solid role in the regular season, he struggled during the playoffs and eventually lost his spot on the roster.
Protector Additions
When the Oilers sent Ceci and a third-round pick to San Jose, it was 24-year-old Ty Emberson who returned. The right-handed defenseman previously played for head coach Kris Knoblauch with the AHL’s Hartford Wolfpack, scoring a goal and nine assists in 30 NHL games with the Sharks last season. He’s a defensive back who should fit in well in the bottom four, but due to his lack of experience, he shouldn’t be expected to develop into a true top four defender anytime soon.
Josh Brown and Connor Carrick were also brought in this season. Both defensemen will be in contention for roster spots during training camp, but neither is expected to develop into more than a two-way defenseman.
Why Worry?
The Oilers may have lost their one true NHL defenseman in Ceci, but the blueline still has some big question marks. Of course, Evan Bouchard is the team’s best defenseman and is arguably the top 10 defenseman in the NHL, but without him, there are many weaknesses.
Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm formed the NHL’s best defensive pairing last season, finishing with a 63.4 goals percentage (G%) and 62.8 expected goals percentage (xG%) in the regular season, according to MoneyPuck. However, Ekholm is 34 years old and could go down any time this season given his age. Last season he posted career highs in goals, points, G%, and xG%. Although he is still a solid defender in the top four, all signs point to a regression, the only question is how much.
From there, the Oilers might have the worst bottom four in the NHL. Darnell Nurse has struggled for the better part of the last three seasons, and two of his best defensive partners according to xG%, Ceci and Desharnais, have left the team. Emberson would make sense to join his pairing, but the two defenders struggle in transition, especially out of zone. This is a concern that Knoblauch can address with Emberson, but betting on the two to be a successful defensive pairing is a risky bet to make.
Brett Kulak is a solid secondary defenseman, but his partner remains a major concern. Emberson makes sense, but it seems like he’ll play with the likes of Brown, Carrick, or Troy Stecher, all borderline NHL defensemen. Given this pairing should only see close to 25% of possible ice time it’s not a huge concern, but depth wins championships, and the team lacks depth.
The Oilers blueline is undoubtedly vulnerable to five question marks, posing a serious threat to the team’s Stanley Cup aspirations. However, the current roster is strong enough to lead the team to the playoffs, and if general manager Stan Bowman can accumulate enough cap space to add a legitimate second-string defenseman at the 2025 Trade Deadline, the roster’s outlook could improve significantly.
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