WTC conditions – England’s chances win – SL, Bangladesh still in contention

Sri Lanka

Percentage: 42.86, remaining series: New Zealand (two Tests at home), South Africa (two away), Australia (two at home)

In England

Percentage: 42.19, remaining series: Pakistan (three Tests), NZ (three)

England’s unexpected defeat at The Oval against Sri Lanka means they will no longer be able to break 60% this round. The highest average they can now achieve, with wins in their remaining six Tests, is 57.95. That may still be enough if other results go their way.

For example, if India escapes the other pack, England can finish second if Australia do not get more than 42 of the 84 points on offer in the remaining seven Tests, and if the other teams stay below 57.95 as well. If Australia finishes at the top then England need India not to go over 58 points and stay below 57.95. However, if England drop more points – five wins and a draw would drop their percentage to 54.92 – they will need more help from other teams.

India

Percentage: 68.52, remaining series: Bangladesh (Two home Tests), NZ (Three home), Australia (Five away)

India still sit at the top with 68.52 per cent, but they have 10 games left, the most of any team. To keep more than 60 percent – it managed to enter the 2023 final with 58.8 points – it needs another 63 points, which it can get with five wins and a draw. Six wins would increase the percentage to 64.03, but to match their current results they would need seven wins, which would increase their percentage to 69.3.

Australia

Percentage: 62.50, remaining series: India (Five home Tests), SL (two)

Currently in second place, Australia need 47 more points from the remaining seven Tests to finish on the right side of 60%. They can achieve that with four wins, or three wins and three draws. To a large extent, their final standing will depend on how many points they collect in the five-Test home series against India.

Bangladesh

Percentage: 45.83, remaining series: India (two Tests), West Indies (two away), South Africa (two at home)

Pakistan

Percentage: 19.05, remaining series: England (Three home Tests), SA (Two away), WI (Two home)

Not only did Pakistan lose 2-0 against Bangladesh, but they also dropped six points due to poor performance. Their percentage dropped from 36.66 at the start of the series to 19.05. From here, the maximum they can achieve is 59.52, if they win each of the remaining seven Tests.

New Zealand

Percentage: 50.00, remaining series: SL (two Tests), India (three away), England (three home)

New Zealand played only six of the 14 Tests in this cycle. Five of their remaining eight Tests will be in Asia. Of the 96 points available, they need at least 65 to finish at 60%. That means five wins and two draws (or six wins), but it’s a tough ask given three of those Tests will be in India.

South Africa

Percentage: 38.89, remaining series: SL (Two home Tests), Pakistan (Two home), Bangladesh (Two away)

If South Africa win each of the next six Tests, they will finish with 69.44, which will almost certainly put them in the final. They have home series against Sri Lanka and Pakistan later this year, apart from a tricky two-Test series in Bangladesh.

The West Indies

Percentage: 18.52, remaining series: Bangladesh (Two home Tests), Pakistan (Two away)

West Indies have already played four series and have collected only 20 runs out of 108 runs. Even if it wins its last four Tests, it would finish at 43.59%.