We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has used thousands of simulations from every game to intelligently identify our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. JOSH GIDDEY OVER 4.5 Total Assists (+136)
Probability: +136
Probability: 56.2%
Rating: 5.6
Limit: 13.8%
Game: Mavericks vs Thunder (9:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bets in today’s NBA matchups. The best player bet happened on the Mavericks vs Thunder, where Josh Giddey showed value in the over assist prop market. Our model dropped Josh Giddey Over 4.5 Total Assist as the best player bet today. Throughout the 23/24 season Giddey managed to average 4.8 assists per game. Compared to the Mavs, this number drops to just 4.3 APG. Our model suspects that with more Mavs on the GTD roster, Giddey should be able to move the ball in the best scoring matchups, resulting in him hitting the assist line more. Having SGA on the field will also help to reduce a lot of attention from the defense, further putting Giddey in a position to move the ball to more open teammates.
Our model recommends placing a wager Josh Giddey Over 4.5 Total Assists of +136 odds and attractive 13.8% limit by Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. KYRIE IRVING OVER 3.5 3 POINTERS MADE (+142)
Odds: +142
Probability: 54.4%
Rating: 3.9
Limit: 13.1%
Game: Mavericks vs Thunder (9:30PM EST)
According to our model, one of the best player prop bets on today’s playoff slate occurs in the Mavericks vs Clippers game, with Kyrie Irving showing value in the market with more than 3 points. Kyrie averaged 3 3-pointers per game on the season, and averaged 3.6 3-pointers in the postseason 23/24. With the Mavs at the bottom of the series we can expect to see players like Luke and Irving play important roles on both sides of the court, but mostly offensively. With the power of Kyrie and Luke on the court, we can expect to see Luke pass the ball to Kyrie to take shots from the arc that lead to him crossing his 3-point line.
The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager Kyrie Irving Over 3.5 3-Pointers Madewith 13.1% limit of +142 issues available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
3. DERRICK WHITE OVER 4.5 Total Assists (+125)
Probability: +125
Probability: 54.5%
Assumptions: 5.3
Margin: 10%
Game: Cavaliers vs. Celtics (7PM EST)
The next best NBA prop player bet our betting bot recommends also comes in the Cavaliers vs Celtics game, Derrick White showing value in the over assists prop market.
Throughout the 23/24 season White managed to average 4.7 assists per game, our model predicts that he will average 5.3 assists in tonight’s game. In the last postseason game against the Cavaliers, White managed to go with 5 assists in the first game. Our model believes that with a 4.7APG rating against the Cavs and a 5.3 assist rating in tonight’s game, this is a solid bet for tonight’s NBA slate.
Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Derrick White Over 4.5 Total Assists in tonight’s game, which gives us i 10% margin you have +125 odds currently available at BetMGM Sportsbook.
4. DARIUS GARLAND OVER 5.5 ASSISTS (+102)
Probability: +102
Probability: 58.8%
Rating: 7.0
Limit: 8.8%
Game: Cavaliers vs. Celtics (7PM EST)
According to our model, tonight’s best NBA finalist bet includes Darius Garland in the Cavaliers vs Celtics matchup. Our betting bot has priced Darius Garland Over 5.5 Total Assists.
During the 2023/24 regular season Garland averaged 6.5 assists per game, averaging 5.4 APG in the postseason. In his last five postseason games, he has dropped one assist three times. Our Basketball Forever betting bot predicts that Garland will be looking to move the ball to a higher scoring level, resulting in more assists.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends betting Darius Garland Over 5.5 Total Assistswith the findings 8.8% limit again +102 exceptions at Draftkings Sportsbook.
What is the Edge in NBA Betting?
The edge occurs when Dimers.com’s prediction model projects the event to be higher than the best odds available through US Sportsbooks. Basically, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model is a project where betting has a better chance of making money than sportsbooks. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you.
Although an edge does not guarantee a win, it is consistently a high pick on the edge of the bet it can increase your chances of becoming a profitable bet in the long run. This is an important aspect of successful sports betting.
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