Tampa Bay Lightning 2024-25 Player Projections: Nick Paul – Hockey Writers – Tampa Bay Lightning

We’re less than a month away from the 2024-25 season, and the Tampa Bay Lightning will return to action with a new roster. The team added and subtracted forwards and defenses this offseason. Players like Steven Stamkos, Jake Guentzel, Mikhail Sergachev, and JJ Moser are some of the players who have been in or out.

Related: Ezombani Hedman Talks Stamkos Departure & Captain Potential

With all the changes, let’s focus on some serious pieces heading into the season. We will review their performance last season, their role in the upcoming season, and what to expect from them. Today, we’ll feature one of the Lightning’s standout players from last season – Nick Paul, who has set several career-highs.

We analyze Paul’s 2023-24 campaign

Paul was the acquisition of the 2022 Deadline, when the Lightning added some important pieces to the list today in Brandon Hagel. After all, that 2021-22 roster was underappreciated for their efforts. Since coming over from the Ottawa Senators, Paul has established himself as the perfect middle six, two-goal scorer for the Lightning. In addition, he took advantage last season on special teams.

The 2023-24 season was a career one for Paul, with the 29-year-old scoring goals, assists and points. Throughout his first season of 82 games, he had 24 goals, 13 major assists and 46 points. His previous best totals came last season with Tampa Bay, where he had 17 goals and 32 points in 80 games. Paul scored several goals on the Lightning’s power-play, where he was the master of the net. He had nine goals and a career-high 14 points for a man.

While Paul wasn’t quite the five-for-five offensive player he was last season, he’s been as strong defensively as he’s been in recent seasons. He pressed the level of scoring opportunities on the ice, as the Lightning allowed the expected goals five to five nine percent below the league average last season (via HockeyViz). In addition, Paul ranked third among the Lightning’s leading players in the starting percentage of the defensive zone (DZS%), which proves that head coach Jon Cooper has placed trust in the Canadian forward. For the most part, Paul has done this against top-six forwards, making him a reliable shutdown guy.

Paul even earned a few games on the top line alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, where he played solidly. However, as time went on, Paul faced the rapid pace of the opposition’s top lines. Although he can defend against the best players of this level, this is where all his strength is devoted, which has made him lack offensive substance and create scoring opportunities. Paul is best suited for a central six role, not a top winger role. With that said, let’s talk about his role for the 2024-25 season.

Paul’s Role for the 2024-25 Season

The Lightning bench boss learned more about Paul in his second season with the team. He found that Paul was more suited to a third-down role, second base and could be used on special teams if needed. With the addition of Cam Atkinson, Paul likely won’t see top-six minutes next season. However, he will drive the offense on the third line.

The DailyFaceoff has Paul focusing on Michael Eyssimot and Conor Sheary to open the 2024-25 season. Although Sheary calmed down last season, the Lightning are hopeful that he can resume his career now that he is healthy. On the other hand, Eyssimot is also coming off a career-best season, so the Lightning hope to continue to grow as an offensive player. Finally, this line has a good punch of experience and durability. In addition, they can be dangerous on the forecheck with historical puck-pressure players like Paul and Sheary.

Paul’s 2024-25 Season Expectations

Paul’s numbers may look a little different this season because he may be out of the starting power play category. The plan is for 26-year-old star Brandon Hagel to jump to the first unit, likely to replace Stamkos in left field. That leaves Guentzel, who has good hand-eye coordination and a natural ability to score, as Paul’s replacement. The other three power play areas will remain the same.

A stat line of around 15 goals and 35-40 points is a reasonable projection for Paul without power play minutes. However, we could easily see him returning to the 20-goal and 45-point range on the power play. Paul is a reliable, two-way center for the Lightning who will be here for a long time going forward.