After narrowly missing the postseason, the Detroit Red Wings are making some roster changes this summer. Vladimir Tarasenko, Tyler Motte, Erik Gustafsson, and Cam Talbot were brought in, and the organization expects the team as a whole to take a step forward in 2024-25.
Given the increased emphasis on team defense this season, can the Red Wings sustain their offensive explosiveness that ranked ninth in goals (275) last year? My point prediction model suggests that the drop is not as big of a deal as others suggest.
Red Wings Strike Model: Quick Background
Of course, most of you just want to get the numbers. I get that. But before you start making assumptions about players and their fictional stats, please allow me to share what went into this model so you can have that context.
This model looks at:
- Expected roles of players
- Historical data
- The age of the player
- The nature of the contract
- Familiarity with existing staff/system
In general, these forecasts should be considered as the middle point of the bell curve. Players can score more points. Of course they could get less points. These forecasts are designed to work as most likely The status of each player.
Related: 4 Red Wings Need to Step Up in 2024-25
I won’t reveal the exact recipe for my secret sauce, but I wanted to share that the above characters are the variables that are added to them. Now you know that others logic came into this.
Okay, with that out of the way, let’s get to the numbers.
Red Wings Scoring Projections for 2024-25
Below are my goals for each Red Wings player I expect to play 20 or more games this season.
| The player | GP | G | A | PTS |
| Dylan Larkin | 76 | 35 | 43 | 78 |
| Lucas Raymond | 82 | 29 | 43 | 72 |
| Alex DeBrincat | 80 | 31 | 39 | 70 |
| Patrick Kane | 72 | 22 | 40 | 62 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 74 | 21 | 31 | 52 |
| Moritz Seider | 80 | 8 | 42 | 50 |
| JT’s partner | 80 | 20 | 27 | 47 |
| Jonathan Berggren | 67 | 18 | 25 | 43 |
| Andrew Copp | 78 | 12 | 24 | 36 |
| Michael Rasmussen | 74 | 14 | 19 | 33 |
| Simon Edwinsson | 72 | 6 | 22 | 28 |
| Erik Gustafsson | 70 | 5 | 23 | 28 |
| Joe Veleno | 74 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| Christian Fischer | 76 | 9 | 13 | 22 |
| Jeff Petry | 64 | 4 | 17 | 21 |
| Ben Chiarot | 80 | 6 | 15 | 21 |
| Olli Maatta | 64 | 3 | 11 | 14 |
| Tyler Motte | 72 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| Albert Johansson | 58 | 3 | 10 | 13 |
In addition to the above predictions, I expect a few more calls throughout the season. Marco Kasper will spend some time in Detroit, as will Austin Watson, Carter Mazur, and Justin Holl. Elmer Soderblom and Nate Danielson are likely to get a few games, too.
I will not do a goal and total score for these players for several reasons. First, the call-up depends on which Red Wings player has to miss time. Second, the number of games is not a large enough sample size to make predictions. And finally, the calls don’t really have a ton of NHL history to include speculation (minus Watson and Hall).
The Last Word
Based on these projections, the Red Wings should be close to their total numbers from last year. Defensive improvements may prevent them from reaching 275 goals again, but there’s really no way to predict how much of an impact the tactical adjustments will have on the team’s offense.
Related: Red Wings season preview: Depth chart, X-Factors, Projections and more
At the very least, this team should be dangerous offensively. If they can maximize their high-danger opportunities and maintain power play production, then scoring will continue to be the team’s strength.
Data courtesy of The Natural Stat Trick again NHL.com.
Source link
