The Blue Jackets’ Early Season Override – Hockey Writers – Columbus Green Jackets

The Columbus Blue Jackets have only played six games this season and currently sit at a 3-3 record. Despite the many injuries that have already plagued the roster, they have played competitively most nights and exceeded expectations thus far. That makes this team prone to speculation and overreaction to early success. While it’s possible that all of this hot takeover may end in a few months, there are a few trends that could be very interesting if they continue. Here are three predictions the Blue Jackets will see this season.

Daniil Tarasov will take over the Net

The goalkeeper position has been weak for the Blue Jackets since the departure of Sergei Bobrovsky in 2019. Although he had some good times in net, Elvis Merzlikins had a rough ride during his time in Columbus. Although he started as a starter in the first game of the season, a minor injury limited him to only two appearances in six games. Unfortunately for him, those starts didn’t impress either. He allowed seven goals with an .854 save percentage (SV%) and lost both games he started. This was not the start to the season the Blue Jackets were hoping for from the highly regarded netminder.

“We needed a strong start to the game, and I think we did a great job with that.”

Goaltender Daniil Tarasov tells Dave Maetzold it was an unbelievable effort for the Columbus Blue Jackets to get the win over the Toronto Maple Leafs.#CBJ pic.twitter.com/iX29wIIZhN

— FanDuel Sports Network Columbus (@FanDuelSN_CBUS) October 23, 2024

But his bad start opened the door for Daniil Tarasov. In four starts, he posted an .888 SV%, allowing 13 goals and earning three wins. At first glance, these figures don’t seem very different. But if you look at the basic stats, he’s doing much better than Merzlikins. According to MoneyPuck, you have goals saved above the expected number of 0.2. That means you are making almost exactly the same amount of savings as you should be. Meanwhile, Merzlikins has a minus-3.6 goals-against average, which means he’s allowed nearly four more goals than he should have in just two games. Tarasov does a better job in net. While Blue Jackets general manager Don Waddell spoke openly this summer about needing to get Merzlikins back on track (from ‘Blue Jackets’ Elvis Merzlikins stays, says Don Waddell: no trade, no buyout’, Athletic, 6/20/24), it’s ultimately up to the goalies to get their starts. If both continue to play as they have, Tarasov will be the starter, while Merzlikins will be on the way to a buyout next summer.

Kirill Marchenko Will Be The Game’s Point Per Game Player

The Blue Jackets have only one player score 82 or more points in a season. Artemi Panarin did that in both seasons he played for the Blue Jackets, putting up 82 and 87 points. Per Elite Prospects, the Blue Jackets have only two other players who have reached one point per game in a season in which they have played more than six games. Rick Nash did it twice with 79 points in 78 games and 54 points in 54 games. Patrik Laine did it once with 56 points in 56 games. This season currently has six Blue Jackets averaging a point per game or more in Kirill Marchenko with 1.33 points per game (P/G), Kent Johnson with 1.25 P/G, Yegor Chinakhov with 1.17 P/ G, Sean Monahan with 1.17 UP/G, Justin Danforth with 1.00 P/G, and Zach Werenski with 1.00 P/G.

While not all of those players will finish at their current scoring rates, Marchenko looks like someone with a chance to stay at or above a point per game. He has been very good at carrying the puck into the zone, and using his body to maintain his position in tight spaces. He’s always had a good shot, but he’s doing more now to create his own chances and set up others. His line with Monahan and Chinakhov was one of the most productive lines in the entire NHL before they were split up due to team injuries. He has continued to show growth as a player, and this season looks to be a big one for the 24-year-old.

The Blue Jackets Will Finish Sixth Or Better In The Metro

Most fans and experts alike expected the Blue Jackets to finish in the Metro this season, and possibly in the bottom three in the NHL. However, they actually had one of their best starts in recent seasons. Under new coach Dean Evason, they have played competitively almost every night, their attacking production so far has actually set a record with 24 goals in the first six games, and they may find a better response in the net. Meanwhile, the Flyers in Philadelphia have had a rough start to the season, going 1-5-1 in their first seven games. The aging Pittsburgh Penguins aren’t much better with a 3-5-1 record through nine games. The New York Islanders are 3-2-2 in seven games and need their goaltender Ilya Sorokin to continue playing at a high level, even after coming out of surgery (in ‘Ilya Sorokin found a way to not be bothered by surgery-altered preseason” , The New York Post10/16/24). Even the New Jersey Devils are sitting at just 5-4-2 through 11 games.

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Metro has big questions this season. The Carolina Hurricanes and New York Rangers are almost playoff locks. The Washington Capitals are off to an incredibly hot start, but they may come back down to earth at some point. If the Blue Jackets can keep their offense high-flying while continuing to bolster their scoring, they will escape the Metro cellar and potentially contend for a playoff spot late in the season. A sixth place finish in the Metro is more than expected for this team.

Wild Overreaction or Real Prediction?

While the data may be limited, the early signs have been very positive for the Blue Jackets this season. They’ll need to continue to play at the same intensity to fulfill any of these predictions, but it’s not crazy to think they can. An experienced head coach combined with a talented young roster can produce many unexpected and positive results. One thing everyone can agree on about this Blue Jackets team: it’s been fun to watch.