Metropolitan Division Hot Trends Through 10 Games – Hockey Writers – Column

Remember when I wrote this offseason that the Metropolitan Division would continue its bad streak this season? If you don’t, here is a link to that article. While that appears to be true to a certain extent, it also appears to be incorrect for the first ten games of the 2024-25 season.

The bottom of the Metropolitan Division doesn’t look particularly good, but the top half? Some of the best teams in the NHL may be in the top four in the Metro. Will that last? Time will tell, but it looks like there is more potential in the division than I would have expected in 2024-25.

Better Than Expected Capitals

I had the Washington Capitals make the playoffs in the article I linked above, with 94 points and in the wild card spot. It’s early, but the Capitals look a lot better than a wild card team. Their 55.64 expected goals percentage (xG%) is third in the NHL behind the Carolina Hurricanes and Los Angeles Kings.

I expected the Capitals to be a strong defensive team. That’s held in the first 11 games, as they allow 2.47 expected goals per 60 minutes. But the most surprising thing is how many crimes they commit. They averaged 3.1 expected goals per 60, ranking fourth in the NHL.

Related: Islanders’ Top Line Not Enough to Make a Difference

The Capitals are scoring at a terrible rate, averaging 3.99 goals per 60 minutes. It’s almost certainly due for a pullback from that number, and looking at someone else’s stats suggests it’s coming. The Capitals have five players shooting 21 percent or better, and none of them is Alex Ovechkin.

Shooting percentages are increasing across the league, so maybe there’s a level of sustainability for the Capitals that lights the lamp. But it seems unlikely that they will continue to have five players shooting 21 percent or better. The offense will drop to a reasonable level near their xG/60, which can reverse, too. But still, this group looks legit.

The Capitals are 8-3-0 in their first 11 games, and it’s no fluke. Maybe they finish in the wild card spot, but they look good enough to compete for a top three spot, and maybe even comfortably so.

What Storms Happen?

One thing I think I seem to have gotten across in my article linked above is that people are too quick to talk about tornadoes. They lost a number of key players from last year’s team (Stefan Noesen, Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce, Jake Guentzel and Teuvo Teravainen), but they never missed a beat.

As mentioned above, the Hurricanes lead the NHL in xG%. They may be Corsi and xG spammers, but at least to me, that doesn’t stop them from being a great team. That speaks well of coach Rod Brind’Amour’s program, at least in the regular season. But they also have many talents.

Seth Jarvis is one of the brightest young players in this league, and Sebastian Aho is one of the under 1Cs. Meanwhile, Martin Necas has 18 points in his first ten contests. I doubt that production will last long, but we know he’s a capable top-six linebacker.

The Hurricanes are also starting to add prospects like Jackson Blake to the lineup; he has five points in the first ten games, so the talent is there. They are 8-2-0 in their first ten games and look like they will once again compete for the top spot in the Metro with the New York Rangers.

Rangers Look Like The Team We’ve Been Expecting

The Guardians are what we thought they were until now. They have the ability to play strong and will get excellent scoring from Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick more often than not. The only concern I would have if I was a Rangers fan is their defense.

They’ve only played 11 games, so this will be about as good as the Capitals offense can get, but this is not the team the Rangers want to be on as the season progresses. They gave up 3.06 expected goals per 60 five-on-five, the fifth-worst rate in the NHL. The only four teams that have worked hard defensively are the Montreal Canadiens, Anaheim Ducks, Pittsburgh Penguins, and San Jose Sharks.

Right now, those look like four lottery teams. The Rangers won’t be close to a lottery pick, but they could have problems later in the season if their defense doesn’t improve. Still, it would be hard to argue that they are not a contender.

What are Devils?

I’m finding it difficult to read the New Jersey Devils starting this season. They have played the most games in the NHL at age 14 and have a busy October schedule that includes opening the year in Prague as part of the NHL All-Star Series.

The Devils’ numbers look solid. They have a 52.3 xG% and are playing much better defense than last season. But I’m not sure how good this team is right now. Nico Hischier is off to a hot start, but Jack Hughes isn’t looking like Jack Hughes yet. That’s not surprising, because he had shoulder surgery last season. But there are signs that it is coming to him, and if it does, the Devils may start to come out.

If anything seems certain about the Devils, it’s that they are better than last season. I don’t think there is any question about that, but how good they are remains to be seen. However, they look to be a top four team in the Metro, so they will likely return to the playoffs this season.

Now About Down Under The Metro

I won’t reveal each one as mentioned above, but this is where you can see the gap growing between the top four and bottom four teams in the Metro. The four teams in the top Metro division look like playoff teams, while the bottom four are not.

The Columbus Blue Jackets have been an interesting story to start this season, but downs are coming. They score 3.42 goals per 60 while the expected goals average is 2.34 per 60, so they will be able to sit in 4th place in the Metro.

The New York Islanders have some basic numbers; Their 55.13 xG% ranks fourth in the NHL. But they have a few problems. One) The damage bug hit them hard. Mathew Barzal and Adam Pelech are out 4-6 weeks, while Anthony Duclair is sidelined with an injury.

Two) They cannot score goals; they have been shut out four times in 12 games. Even with Barzal and Duclair on the roster, scoring was a chore. Now, since they’ve been out for so long, things could go downhill fast for the Islanders.

And what about the two Pennsylvania teams? The Pittsburgh Penguins defense is a mess, just like last season; Only the Ducks and Canadiens give up more expected goals in the 60s than the Penguins. It seems that their time as rivals is over.

As for the Philadelphia Flyers, it is clear that they were very successful last season. Now, they look like the team everyone expected in 2023-24. Their base numbers are among the worst in the NHL; Their 45.79 xG% is ranked 28th. They might be the worst team in the Metro, especially since it looks like scoring saves will be a problem most nights.

Is The Playoff Divide Already Forming?

It’s early in the season, but a clear divide is emerging at Metro. You have the Hurricanes, Capitals, Rangers and Devils looking like playoff contenders and, in the case of the Capitals and Hurricanes, better than most expected heading into the season. The battle for the top four of these four teams can be fierce.

Then there is the bottom half of the section, which may be worse than expected. The Islanders are riddled with injuries and can’t score, while the Penguins, Flyers and Blue Jackets look like lottery teams. There is time for these trends to change. After all, most teams have only played 10-12 games, but it looks like Metro has already settled into what could be a playoff race.

******

Advanced statistics from Natural Stat Trick