2013 was when “twerk” and “selfie” were added to the dictionary. In 2013, Paul Walker died in a car accident. RIP. 2013 was when Edward Snowden caused a freeze in the intelligence community from Hong Kong. Man, 2013 seems like a lifetime ago. 2013 and when Kevin Pillar he made his MLB debut. You’ve been over a few blocks or two or three. In fact, he is now playing for his ninth MLB team. As a good Asian man, I have been taught to respect my elders. Wait, I’m much older than him!! Anyway, I’m writing to him this week because he’s completely cheap right now and I want to see if there’s anything here.
The pitcher is 35 years old, 6 feet, 200 pounds, and bats from the right. He was selected in the 32nd round of the 2011 MLB Draft. But he went through the process and made the big club within two years.
He played six seasons in Toronto, hitting double-digit home runs in three of those seasons with double-digit steals in four. High marks were 25 stolen bases and 16 home runs. He was not a traveler. I don’t know if he was a talker. The strikeout rate was often under 20%, the batting average was in the .260 range and the ISO was in the low .100s, but he hit .148 and .174 over the past two seasons. He was out there to protect himself.
He was traded to the San Francisco Giants in 2019, became a free agent, and signed with the Boston Red Sox the following season. He was then traded to the Colorado Rockies at the deadline, became a free agent again, and signed with the New York Mets, where he played just one season. He joined the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2022 but had back surgery. The following season, he joined the Atlanta Braves, played one season, and then signed with the Chicago White Sox. After 17 games, he was designated for assignment and eventually became a free agent. After Mike Trout was injured, the Los Angeles Angels picked him up.
Wow. I need a cigarette. And I quit ten years ago! (Editor’s Note: in….2013??)
After Pillar left Toronto, the strikeout rate went up while the batting average went down. The ISO stayed, however, as he posted a .188 ISO in 206 plate appearances with Atlanta.
In 17 games with the White Sox, Pillar hit .160/.290/.360 with a home run and two stolen bases. The walk rate was 12.5%, the strikeout rate was 25% and the ISO was .200. BABIP was only .176.
Since joining the Angels eight games ago, Pillar is hitting .400/.400/.880 with two doubles, three home runs, 12 RBIs and a stolen base. He didn’t walk, the strikeout rate is 20% and the ISO is .480! BABIP is an unsustainable .412.
Gray has been calling him a hot schmotatoe in his daily recaps, and I’m leaning that way, especially after seeing the high BABIP. But I like to channel my inner Alice, dive down rabbit holes, and see if Wonderland exists.
Besides the high BABIP, the thing that jumps out is the 82.4 mph exit velocity. Talk about everything or not. So, in his first game, he had three events with an average exit velocity of 67.8 mph. In the next three games, he had one event at 99.4 mph ev, the next game he had five events averaging 92.9 mph, then one event at 102.2 mph ev. After that, two events averaged 64.8 mph. In the last two games, four events at 79.5 mph and then four events at 84.4 mph. His career average is 86.5 mph and, with a large sample size, it will likely approach that number.
Top speed is only 105.2 mph, but he’s usually in the 110 mph range, so with more plate appearances, I think we’ll see a higher number. The launch angle is 17.1 degrees and Nsika has had a double-digit number in each year of his career. While he’ll never turn into Barry Bonds, double-digit home runs look very effective.
Pillar has been chasing his fair share of games, making big changes in general and posting good contact numbers in the zone. Currently, however, the 6.5% strikeout rate is well below his career norms. He has had at least a 12% swinging strikeout rate since 2020. He also has a 78.9% contact rate out of the zone. You are usually in the 60% range.
That’s right, Pillar will regress, with the batting average dropping to .240ish most likely. But, but, but….you might still have help. He’s been batting fourth or second in the lineup, and playing time looks secure…for now. In addition, despite being 35 years old, he is still in the 76th percentile in running speed.
A pillar may be a tower that leans more than a base piece, but as long as it hits the heart of the order, it can provide a little pop with some speed. Cross country truck drivers are salivating.
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