Welcome back to another chapter of Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players. This week I want to include a player who started his career in the Baltimore system before being shipped to Milwaukee this offseason as a key piece for the Brewers in a trade. What am I talking about? Joey Ortiz.
Joey Ortiz had an impressive college career at New Mexico State University. In three seasons he hit .342/.402/.510 with 15 homers, 173 RBI, and 35 steals in 170 games. He had some really flashy numbers in his junior season as he slashed .422/.474/.697 with eight home runs, 84 RBI, and 12 steals.
Although the numbers are outstanding, New Mexico State has a home field that is good for hitters and pitchers in a conference that is not well stocked with quality big league hitters. So, there were questions about how well Ortiz would do at the next level, which led to him falling to the fourth round before Baltimore selected him in the 2019 draft.
It could be a few years before the Orioles and other teams know how good Ortiz is as Covid ended the 2020 season and he appeared in just 35 games in 2021 due to a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder.
But in 2022 Ortiz showed his skills at the plate, earning him a promotion to the majors in 2023 and becoming a key player in the package that Baltimore sent to Milwaukee for Corbin Burnes earlier this season.
Let’s take a look at why Ortiz is a future dynasty player.
STATISTICS
| THE SEASON | AB | H | R | HR | The RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 – Balt | 33 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | .212 | .206 | .242 |
| 2024 – Mil | 112 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 12 | 1 | .277 | .384 | .511 |
| 7 days ago | 19 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .316 | .409 | .579 |
| 14 days ago | 30 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | .300 | .382 | .733 |
Joey Ortiz debuted in 2022, playing in Double-A and Triple-A. At both levels, he slashed .284/.349/.477 with 19 homers, 85 RBIs, and eight steals. His season has impressed the Orioles since he joined the team on April 27 of last year.
But the Orioles used him sparingly. Appearing in just 15 games, he had 33 at-bats before being sent back to Triple-A at the end of June. During his time with the Orioles he slashed .212/.206/.242 with four RBIs with a 26% strikeout rate and a 0% walk rate – both numbers didn’t compare well to his career numbers. Ortiz finished the season with Norfolk and in 88 games showed he was very good at that level, hitting .321/.378/.507 with nine dingers, 58 RBIs, and 11 steals.
Square Peg, Round Grip
Those numbers were good for Ortiz and showed that he can produce at the plate. His ability in this field has never been questioned. He can play third base, second base, and shortstop, and play them all well.
But he didn’t fit well into the Orioles’ future plans. Ortiz’s problem in Baltimore was that the team is full of talented players who all play those positions in Jordan Westburg, Gunnar Henderson, and Jackson Holliday.
So Ortiz didn’t suit up for Baltimore, and that was good news for Milwaukee. As mentioned, he was acquired as part of the Burnes trade last season and Ortiz has been a fixture on the Brewers’ roster this season. He has started 23 games at third and four at second base and made one at shortstop.
Tools
Joey Ortiz will stick in the majors because of his ability to put the bat on the ball and control the hitting zone. In the minors he had a career rate of 17% with a walk rate of 9%. During his short major league career his strikeout rate is 19.8% with a walk rate of 11%. Those numbers are even better this season as the strikeout rate is 17.8% and the walk rate has increased to 14%.
An interesting development for Ortiz this season is how he has turned into a pull hitter. Throughout his minor league career he has hit the ball to all fields and in his short time with the Orioles he has pulled the ball only 8% of the time compared to upfield 64% of the time and to right 28% of the time. This season he has turned into a pull hitter, striking out 28% of the time and walking up just 51% of the time while striking out 21% of the time. (Editor’s Note: Jakkers emailed me after posting an update that of course, Joey Ortiz hit a double and a homer last night in the opposite field. The man does everything.)
The reason for this change in approach may be his attempt to hit more power. Outings from college scouts ranked him as average to slightly below average power. And while he did hit homers in the minors, it was only at a 2.4% clip.
That changed this year. His current home run rate is 3.6%, above the MLB average of 3.1% while his ISO sits at .234. The MLB average is .162.
Ortiz currently ranks third on the Brewers in average bat speed at 74.2 mph. However, that hasn’t always translated into solid communication. His Average EV only ranks in the 33rd percentile and his Barrel% and Hard-Hit% rank in the 54th and 43rd percentiles. But the power hitting ability is there and I expect him to hit more homers in the future.
Ortiz is no slouch as his fastball is in the 70th percentile. But he is not a criminal.
In his 52 major league games entering Friday, he had attempted one steal and was successful. Since the rules now favor baserunners when it comes to stealing, Ortiz might add a few stolen bases here and there, but that’s not his game.
The decision
Joey Ortiz is not a local player. He was ranked in the top 100 prospects by Baseball America and MLB Pipeline for 2023. But he was near the bottom of those rankings, coming in at 95 by Baseball America and 99 by MLB. Ortiz was considered a solid prospect, but certainly not a sure thing.
But the right-hander has shown that his success in college was not a product of his nature and has shown the ability to be a solid player for the Royals. After a solid April (.266/.385/.406, one homer, eight RBI), Ortiz has really turned it on this month. In eight starts and 10 total appearances, he is hitting .300/.382/.733 with three home runs and four RBIs.
Will he continue the explosive 1.115 OPS? No, that is reserved for Aaron the Judges of the world. But while he won’t hit a ton of home runs, he has strong gap power right now that leads to double or triple doubles. I see him hitting around 12 homers this year with 25 to 30 doubles, which would represent a very strong percentage.
Down the road the power should increase, although 20 may be his ceiling. But the slash line should remain strong as he draws walks and should produce a .280-.290 batting average.
Thanks for reading and I’ll be back next week.
Source link
