You can add two more stars to the injured list unfortunately, as Braves third baseman Austin Riley and Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte were both added to the 10-day injured list on Monday. Riley, one of Atlanta’s hottest hitters after an ice-cold start to the 2024 season, was removed from Sunday’s game against the Angels after Jack Kochanowicz’s 97 mph sinker went too high and too deep, hooking his wrist. Marte’s injury appears to be less severe than Riley’s, but a sprained ankle put him on the shelf at a crucial time in the playoff game against Arizona.
When I ran the numbers on baseball’s most injured teams last week, Atlanta came in second in terms of potential losses, only “beaten” by the Dodgers. Riley, who has received MVP votes the past three seasons, has had a down year, posting a .256/.322/.461 slash line and 2.4 WAR, which represents his weakest performance since before his 2021 breakout. . But even if he hasn’t had a great season overall, he’s become more important lately, especially as the injuries have piled up and the rest of the team’s offense has dwindled. Riley’s season line was as low as .220/.288/.330 back in mid-June; he had gone more than a month without a homer and had just three hits on the season. As of June 13, however, Riley led Atlanta’s roster in WAR and hit 16 homers:
Braves Hitters Since June 13th
Monday’s MRI, which revealed a broken wrist, puts Riley out for 6-8 weeks, meaning unless the Braves make a deep run in the playoffs, his 2024 season is likely over. While we’ve never had a good time losing a middle hitter, Riley’s loss comes at an awkward point for the Braves, with their seven-game stretch against the division-leading Phillies in the next week and a half. they probably represent their last, best chance to take the NL East, long or possibly. The Braves seem to have arrested their fall from the standings, winning five of their last seven, but they are still clinging to the last Wild Card spot, as they are only 1 1/2 games ahead of the Mets and 3 1. /2 ahead of the Foxes.
The silver lining – or arguably the silver lining – is that Gio Urshela was suddenly available in free agency after being released by the Detroit Tigers on Sunday; The Braves signed him to a massive contract today. The problem, of course, is that the only reason Urhela was having such a bad season was that no one wanted to risk picking up the remaining dollars on his one-year, $1.5 million contract. Urshela had a solid little average, putting up a 118 wRC+ and 8.1 WAR for the Yankees and Twins from 2019 to 2022, but after a broken pelvis in 2023 and a miserable .243/.286/.333 line this year , he seems to be on the decline of his career.
Although I still think that Nacho Alvarez Jr. could be the best player at his position despite his weak start, Atlanta seems to want to play it safe, selecting veteran Urhela over Luke Williams and possibly Whit Merrifield if Ozzie Albies returns in September. . Barring Riley’s injury, ZiPS projected a 73% chance of the Braves catching the Mets and Giants and making the playoffs; replacing Riley with Urhela drops that chance to 68%, while playing more Williams at third would cause it to slightly increase to 67%. Despite the fact that Urhela is only shown at a replacement level or a hair above, paying $400,000 for 1% of the playing field is actually a reasonable price. To make room for Urshela on the 40-man roster, AJ Minter, who had hip surgery, was placed on the 60-day IL. However, that doesn’t change the team’s predictions, as I had already baked into the idea that, at best, Minter might only get a few outings in the final days of the season.
As I mentioned above, Ketel Marte’s injury is not as bad as Riley’s. Marte initially sprained his ankle on August 10 after Garrett Stubbs slid into second base. The Diamondbacks didn’t put him on the IL, opting to use him carefully last week, with a recent appearance and a game at DH. However, they are not taking any chances, and the hope is that he will be able to return soon after taking time to recover.
Like Riley’s injury, Marte has come to an important place this season for his team. After treading water earlier this season, the Diamondbacks have been one of the hottest teams in baseball, and along with the Padres, have actually made the Dodgers uncomfortable at least atop the NL West. Before the injury, Marte had been hitting the best of his career, hitting .333/.422/.652 with 20 homers since early June. His 3.9 WAR in that span ranked behind only Francisco Lindor’s 4.2 WAR among NL hitters. Combined with the Arizona surge, Marte was putting together a reasonable MVP case. Assuming he only needs to stay in the IL, the significant demotion to Kevin Newman doesn’t represent a deep blow to the Snakes’ playoff hopes; ZiPS has them at a 90% chance of making the playoffs, only a 0.5% drop in their prediction without injury. In the best case scenario, the Diamondbacks will bring Marte back in time for a crucial four-game series against the Dodgers next week, their last chance to punish their rival in the standings.
Injuries to Riley and Marte do not mean that their teams will be forgotten in 2024, but they make the challenges of their team this year more difficult. But hey, no one said it would be easy.
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