Alex Bregman is Powerless | FanGraphs Baseball

On Tuesday night, in his 26th game of the 2024 season, Alex Bregman hit his first home run. It didn’t come a moment too soon. In his first 25 games, Bregman posted a wRC+ of 65. Until this year, he had never had a 25-game hitting streak in a single season. Even in his worst season, an injury shortened 2021 campaign, he still finished with a 114 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. So far this season, Bregman has been worth just 0.2 WAR. A look at Bregman’s numbers in those first 25 games tells a very simple story: zero home runs, .268 SLG, .052 ISO. It’s not just a power outage. That’s a catastrophic grid failure. Only once before had Bregman posted an ISO this low over a 25-game span: In 2017, in games 54 through 78 of his entire career, his ISO was .044. Because he’s been such an influential player for so long, it’s easy to forget that Bregman is only 30 years old. It’s not as if Father Time caught us in an instant, and will come back another time. But what is happening now?

Bregman has always had a strange offensive profile. As Houston hitting coach Troy Snitker told reporters, “He doesn’t hit hard because he hits the ball harder than a lot of guys; he hits hard because he hits it more in the air than most guys.” In his entire career, Bregman has posted an above-average average just once, and he has never broken 40%. However, he has excellent plate and batting skills, and always pulls the ball into the air. Although he recorded an above-average barrel rate just once, he never once had a below-average number of sweet spots. When you pull the ball in the air, especially at Minute Maid Park, you don’t have to hit the ball hard to qualify for a barrel; you just need to hit it hard to get to the Crawford Boxes. Since 2015, Bregman has hit 18 home runs at or below 95 mph, second in all of baseball to Didi Gregorius’ 19.

Snitker saw Bregman’s approach as an opportunity. “So with guys like that,” he said, “if you can get a little bit of improvement in how hard the ball comes out (of the bat), you benefit a lot, because you’re getting more balls out there.” This offseason, Snitker proposed weighted bat training to increase Bregman’s bat speed, with the goal of adding just one mile per hour to his exit velocity: “His 1 mile per hour fastball profile is very expensive to produce,” Snitker said. Bregman explained that the focus was “trying to move (the bat) as fast as possible.” After four months of training, Bregman said, his bat speed numbers increased significantly without negatively affecting his mechanics. Coming into spring training, Bregman said he felt like his swing was “in the best place it’s been in years.”

Needless to say, the results were not there. Bregman’s strikeout rate is low, as are his average exit velocity and his 50 percent exit velo. However, his 90th percentile EV is doing well and he is almost at his best from last season. It’s not that he can’t hit the ball as hard as he used to; it’s just that he doesn’t do it often.

But it’s not just his level of communication; his entire batting profile. Bregman’s ground ball rate exploded while his pull rate dropped. His strikeout rate hasn’t been below 42% since his rookie season, but this year it’s at 33.7%. Only once before did he have a ground ball rate as high as 40%; this year it is 42.7%. Check out his blowout charts from 2023 and 2024. There is very little on the outside, especially on the towing side.

Bregman’s line drive rate has decreased. When he hits the ground ball, he rolls it to the shortstop instead of ripping it down the line. The quality of his fly ball is about the same, but when he puts it in the air, he often drops his back shoulder, which results in a fast ball to right field.

When we combine the quality of contact and the profile of the ball being hit, the picture becomes very clear. In 2023, Bregman’s hard-hit balls had an average launch angle of 13.6 degrees, while his non-hard-hit balls were 20. This year, those numbers are 10 and 26.8. As it currently stands, Bregman’s swing doesn’t appear to be as improved as it was with heavy contact in the air. In the launch angle charts below, I’ve highlighted exit speeds above 80 mph. In 2023, his average EV was higher on almost anything but bunts and ground balls. This year, not only is he hitting the ball at less than ideal starting levels, when he is hitting, he is hitting it less.

So that’s bad news. Now let’s look at some reasons for optimism. First of all, it’s still April (or at least it was when I wrote this). Bregman usually starts slow, though not this bad; his career 110 wRC+ in March/April is the worst of any month. And maybe he needs some time to get used to his new swing. Second, the main reason for Bregman’s problems is that his line drive rate is broken, and line drive rates are notoriously volatile. Third, Bregman has seen strong pitches this season. Because he excels at lifting the ball towards the pull side, it’s no surprise that strikers have been trying to attack him from far and wide. However, they have done a better job of hitting the outside corner this season. He saw more pitches on the edge of the zone and fewer pitches down the middle than in any previous season. The heat maps below show the location of the stadiums they saw in 2023 and 2024.

After looking at these, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that Bregman made some terrible swing decisions and had a hard time catching and lifting the ball. Considering pitchers aren’t always that accurate throughout the season, this could be something that comes out over time.

If a player stops pulling the ball, it makes sense to check if he can no longer swing the fastball, but that doesn’t seem to be a problem. Although he had poor results against players with seamers, the field he usually crushes, Bregman is chasing them and hitting them less than last year. It’s the fragile and uncontrollable stuff that makes him so inconsistent, and players don’t often forget to hit the soft stuff after eight of the league’s best seasons. That lends credence to the idea that Bregman has been battling timing issues. That his homer last night was against a changeup should make it more encouraging.

Let’s assume that Bregman’s bat career has given him more power. Perhaps it should be encouraging that his exit velocity didn’t drop that much, given the fact that he wasn’t swinging at the right pitches or making the kind of contact he wanted. Maybe when he reveals those things, those extra powers will announce themselves.

It’s also worth noting that Bregman’s hitting looks different this season. His position was closed a little in 2023, but this year he is still a pitcher and a little short. Additionally, his leg kick is less noticeable now than it was last season. In the quiet places below, I captured Bregman at that moment when his knee was too high; it’s subtle, but you can see that it’s a little bit up on the left, in 2023. Despite these changes, when he puts his foot down, it looks to me like he’s in the same batting position as he was last year. .

I don’t want to come anywhere near blaming Bregman’s struggles on his new form or the changes he’s made to his swing. There are a million things that could affect his performance, and it would be easy for me to catch a few that I can see or read about. The Houston Chronicle. That said, these a lot of changes to swing in one season, especially when that swing has been successful. Maybe Bregman just needs some time to get used to the big league running game, or maybe he needs to consider going back to what worked for him before. After a doubleheader in Mexico City on Sunday, Bregman noticed that something seemed to click when he tried to get into his front load. Either way, things will go away sooner or later, if for no other reason than they couldn’t get any worse.