Alexander Georgiev’s Colorado Avalanche Future In Doubt After 2024-25 – Hockey Writers – Colorado Avalanche

With the majority of the 2024-25 roster completed, the Colorado Avalanche can look to next summer and beyond. While Mikko Rantanen, Jonathan Drouin, and Logan O’Connor are the three most prominent names out of contract for the 2025-26 season, the most impressive scenario is starting goaltender Alexander Georgiev.

The 28-year-old signed a three-year contract with an average annual value (AAV) of $3.4 million immediately after being acquired by the New York Rangers in the 2022 offseason. His cap hit currently ranks 29th among all forwards — excluding Carey Price and Robin Lehner, who have not played a game in the 2023-24 season and whose playing careers are in doubt due to injury.

Such a salary is adequate compensation for a net operator who carries a heavy workload and provides serviceable (or better) performance on most nights. The question is whether he deserves a long-term deal and a raise that could go along with the extension. The 2024-25 season represents a bright future for Georgiev with the Avalanche, especially with 24-year-old Justus Annunen breathing down his neck. Here’s a look at the first two years of Georgiev’s tenure in Colorado and the merits of the new deal.

Georgiev’s Avalanche Tenure is a two-goal legend

All in all, Georgiev lived up to what was expected of him when he joined the Avalanche. He played (GP) the second most games in the NHL over the past two seasons (125) and finished as the top goaltender (32 best) in every major statistical category, including goals against average (GAA), save. percentage (SV%), and goals saved above expectations (GSAx) among qualified assists (minimum of 20 games played).

There are differences between the two seasons. Georgiev played (62 vs. 63) and won (40 vs. 38) the same number of games from 2022-23 to 2023-24, but his individual performance dropped significantly. His SV% dropped from .918 to .897 while his GAA increased from 2.53 to 3.02 to finish in the bottom half of all eligible goals league wide (minimum 10 games played).

While Georgiev’s stats tell an accurate story about his sophomore season in Colorado, what’s more puzzling has been his inconsistency. In 62 games played in 2022-23, he allowed three or more goals 31 times. In 2023-24, he allowed three or more goals in 37 of 63 games, six more times in one more game. Georgiev also allowed four or more goals in 16 of 62 games in 2022-23, up from 25 last season.

In fairness, Georgiev posted a good GSAx (plus 0.45) for the second straight season, but it was a far cry from the plus-18.7 mark he boasted in his first season with the Avalanche. The latter ranked 11th among all goalscorers in 2022-23, making it uncertain where the Russian ranked among his peers and whether his performance was a product of his team’s defensive system. While there is evidence that the Avalanche found it more difficult to contain opposing attacks in all situations compared to 2022-23, they were by no means a formidable defensive unit (10).

The story of Georgiev’s 2023-24 season appears to be a combination of hard work and a terrible defensive system involving a goalkeeper who has doubled his appearances since joining the club. Georgiev performed well in his first playoff outing with the Avalanche (.914 SV% and plus-0.63 GSAx) but saw a poor first-round performance sink his numbers in the 2024 Playoffs (.894 SV% and -plus-0.5 GSAx).

Despite the performance discrepancy, Georgiev will want a raise in his next contract simply because he has comparable or better numbers than his peers and will be 29 next summer.

Georgiev Comparison Suggests Next Contract Lift

Georgiev is billed as a low-level starter or tandem goaltender, which is what his game warranted when he joined the Avalanche. While many may point to the recent inconsistency and instability at the position as reasons to cut the trash, he can highlight the salaries of goaltenders who have performed worse than they did in the past two seasons.

If you look at the list of active NHL goaltender contracts, only Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5 million AAV), Connor Hellebuyck ($8.5 million AAV), Ilya Sorokin ($8.25 million AAV) significantly beat Georgiev in both the regular season and playoffs as well they have a long time. deals, giving a clear roof for his next deal.

Igor Shesterkin ($5.66 million AAV), Thatcher Demko, Linus Ullmark, and Juuse Saros (all three with $5 million AAV) are unrestricted free agents (UFAs) this summer or next and will big money.

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While Georgiev can wait and see where those high-profile players land on the contract list, he can also target some deals to bolster his case. Philipp Grubauer ($5.9 million AAV), Elvis Merzlikins ($5.4 million AAV), Darcy Kuemper ($5.25 million AAV), and Cal Petersen ($5 million AAV) have all done worse than Georgiev over the past two seasons and are ranked in the top 20. -paid netminder heading into the 2024-25 season.

Georgiev’s third season with the Avalanche could be a make-or-break moment for his NHL career. The recent bias has lowered his value after a poor sophomore season and playoff showing, but a return to form in 2024-25 while still playing a lot of games in Colorado could earn him a lucrative extension, either in Denver or elsewhere.

While the aforementioned cases may pressure NHL general managers to be more cautious (NHL history suggests otherwise), Georgiev has a statistical foundation for his agent to use in contract negotiations. Depending on his performance in 2024-25, a long-term contract carrying an AAV of $6 million would not be surprising. Whether the Avalanche are in a position to give him one is another discussion, but it could be a rough year in Denver.

Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, NHL, and PuckPedia.