The number of Atlanta Braves players on the injured list reached double digits after two of their key players, starting pitcher Max Fried and second baseman Ozzie Albies, went down over the weekend. Fried had a 3.08 ERA/3.71 FIP spanning 108 innings for the Braves before he hit the IL with neuritis in his left arm, which first flared up while warming up for an All-Star Game appearance. In Atlanta’s 6-2 loss to the Cardinals on Sunday, Albies broke his wrist when his glove hand collided with a sliding Michael Siani on a steal attempt; The second baseman is expected to be out for most of the regular season.
To replace Fried and Albies in the lineup, the Braves recalled Dylan Dodd and shortstop Nacho Alvarez Jr. from Triple-A Gwinnett and signed veteran 2B/OF Whit Merrifield to a major league contract.
Ozzie Albies today underwent X-rays that revealed a fractured left wrist. He is expected to miss about eight weeks.
– Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 21, 2024
After missing a good chunk of last year with arm pain, the 30-year-old Fried has stumbled in his first two games this season but has been dominant since then. He also stayed healthy through the first half of the season, which was especially important for the Braves given the early season loss of righty Spencer Strider to Tommy John surgery. The bottom line here — as bottom line as any pitching pitcher with forearm pain that will send fans reeling from some of his bad habits — is that there’s no structural damage to his pitching arm and he won’t need surgery. Instead, the Braves chose to be cautious with Fried because neuritis in the arm could be associated with an underlying problem with the UCL. Fried has had Tommy John surgery once, almost a decade ago when he was a Padres pitcher. Neither the Braves nor Fried gave a timetable for his return, but Fried hoped this would be a temporary issue. Per AthleticDavid O’Brien:
“Everything looks fine structurally, just a small irritated nerve,” Fried said, “not one of the big nerves that activates the muscles. … I’ll let it cool down, and (hopefully) come back soon.”
That there was no mention of ulnar nerve transposition surgery, which would have kept Fried out for months, should be considered a good sign. Or, again, at least a little worse.
After a hot start in April, Albies has struggled in recent months, hitting just .235/.285/.376 since the end of April. He may be having the worst year of his career, but Atlanta was hoping he could return to form in the final two and a half months of the season. Losing even this small amount of Albies lowers the ceiling for this underperforming offense, which ranks 11th among 15 NL teams in runs scored.
Atlanta may be shortstop, but it’s mindless — or should I say Whitless — as the team quickly signed Merrifield to a major league contract. Merrifield’s prime years with the Royals are behind him now, and he was only available to the Braves because the Phillies released him a week ago after he hit .199/.277/.295 (65 wRC+) in 174 plate appearances in a relief role. Projection systems have no power over Merrifield’s performance throughout the season; Samer expects Merrifield to post a .250/.303/.362 line during the final months of the year while ZiPS has him worse, at .244/.293/.354. That said, the Braves just don’t have good internal options to turn to. I ran the projections for every player in Triple-A or Double-A for Atlanta who played at least three games at second base this year. I include Alvarez, who has yet to play for the second team but seems to be the best candidate to replace Albies.
ZiPS Projections – Merrifield vs. Braves Minor Leaguers
If ZiPS is correct, the Braves appear to have identified Alvarez as their short-term option at second base, with Merrifield filling a relief role and serving as an excellent second base option.
The Phillies were already favorites to win the NL East, and ZiPS gave them an 85% chance of taking the team as of this morning. if Fried and Albies were perfectly healthy. Assuming two months of missed work for Albies and an average of three weeks for Fried, ZiPS lowers Atlanta’s odds of dropping the Phillies from 14% to 6%. Fortunately, the Braves remain in command of one of the NL Wild Card spots. These two injuries only drop the chances of playing in ZiPS from 91% to 88%, so while it’s not acceptable, it shouldn’t cause any premature throwing in the towel.
In one last moment to look on the bright side, Atlanta has a lot more options now than if this injury happened in two weeks. We’re just over a week away from the trade deadline, and there are a variety of second basemen and pitchers, who sound different, available. A package that includes a helping arm – Atlanta is deep here – he can presumably to tempt the Orioles to part with a prospect like Connor Norby. Amed Rosario of the Rays and Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Blue Jays have both been solid this season. I’m not sure Atlanta could successfully trade their entire farm system and get Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal if they wanted, but Erick Fedde’s price should make more sense. The Braves may choose to stick with what they have and be obsessed with it, but it’s always nice to be able to make that choice.
It says a lot about the Braves that despite all their bad surprises this season, they still have an 89-game winning streak and are well into the playoffs. But with these two recent injuries, the team’s margin for error has been cut smaller than a nice piece of charcuterie.
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