Blue Jackets Still Have Much To Get This Season – Hockey Writers – Columbus Blue Jackets

The Columbus Blue Jackets are off to a 5-5-1 start in 2024-25. We’d be willing to bet that if this record was offered to you at the start of the season due to all the circumstances surrounding the team, you would have taken it immediately.

The team is trying to do the unthinkable by playing without Johnny Gaudreau. They are missing their captain in Boone Jenner who is not expected to play until March or later. Kent Johnson does not need surgery but will be out for a while. Many people feel that it will be a big struggle this season.

To their credit, the Blue Jackets surprised some people. Thanks to motivated play and good execution, the team was able to start 5-3-1 while dominating several teams. We’re willing to bet no one has ever had the Blue Jackets go 3-0 against the Avalanche, Maple Leafs and Oilers while scoring six against one of them.

Then there are the last two games. The harsh reality hit the Blue Jackets when they were outscored 13-4 by two of the best teams in the NHL in the Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals. It shows that although there have been many good things in the beginning, the team still has a lot to think about. Let’s take a look at the state of the team at the beginning of November in 11 games.

A Strong Case

Although this has come back to Earth a little because of their last two games, the Blue Jackets offense is still a strong point in the new season. With 39 goals in the first 11 games, their 3.55 goals per game average ranks 11th in the NHL.

Leading the way for the Blue Jackets is Kirill Marchenko. He has four goals and 12 points in his first 11 games, a 90-point pace. His teammate Sean Monahan is behind him with 11 points and leads the team with six goals.

Alongside Yegor Chinakhov at the top there, this trio has been one of the best lines in the NHL in 2024-25. They combined for 13-18-31 in 11 games. Not only do they produce, they have their way with the puck for the most part and that gives them the opportunity to post these numbers.

Another piece of the offensive puzzle is defenseman Zach Werenski. He went 3-6-9 in 11 games on pace for 67 points this season. His health and presence made a big difference.

Not only is Werenski producing offensive numbers, he has become a horse in this two-way game. As of Sunday, his 24:50 average on ice ranks 7th in the NHL. He is a play driver that helps spark their offense. If he is silent, there is a good chance that the rest of the Blue Jackets will also be silent.

The key to the Blue Jackets’ offense is their pitching staff. When that’s on, they excel at speed attacks. The biggest change in recent seasons has been their ability to go north quickly. Once you get the puck, it quickly moves north instead of east and west.

When the foreskin is open, games like Colorado, Toronto and Edmonton happen. Otherwise, games like Winnipeg and Washington are happening.

Defense Shows Signs, But…

The Blue Jackets outscored teams on average. That alone is a remarkable development. But the goal difference is +1 for the season after losing four and five in a row.

Simply put, although there has been noticeable progress, these Blue Jackets still have a lot to gain at this point in the ice. A goal average of 3.45 goals per game will eventually catch up to them if they don’t continue to improve.

The Blue Jackets have shown what they can do at times. They held the Maple Leafs to two, the Oilers to one (without Connor McDavid) and got to shut out the Islanders.

Like their offense, their defense is based on their offense and their foreskin. In other words, their ability to articulate goals will determine their success.

The Blue Jackets are built to play from the front. That’s the importance of playing this type of aggressive system. Playing from the front allows them to stay within their system. We all saw what happened when they had to play from behind. They played into their opponent’s hands.

You May Love It Again

The issue here is that it needs to be fixed in order to maintain compatibility. Of course, all parties struggle to find that consensus. Yet their record suggests good nights and bad nights. That usually results in a .500 record.

We’ve mentioned Werenski before and how he drives the game. His defensive play has improved significantly in this part of his career. Playing with Ivan Provorov as the top pairing was great on most nights.

The second pairing of Jake Christiansen and Damon Severson was a mixed bag. They are good or bad. The third pair is alternating and there is a lot of work going on.

The Blue Jackets are still learning the details of Dean Evason’s plan. Although the players as a whole liked the changes, they indicated that they need to strengthen their information. Don’t be surprised if you see Monday’s practice in Columbus focus on those details. They are on pace to allow 283 goals this season. That should decrease as the season progresses.

Setting goals for yourself

Another big key to how this season will go for the Blue Jackets lies in net. Could number one stand up and stand up?

In the first 11 games, it was Daniil Tarasov who started six games and Elvis Merzlikins five, which is almost the same. Tarasov started the second half of a back-to-back for Washington that meant each goalie got five of the first 10 games.

What do the numbers look like?

• Merzlikins: 2-3-0 record. 2.86 goals-against average with a .907 save percentage.
• Tarasov: 3-2-1 record. 4.02 goals-against average with a .860 save percentage.

The numbers above suggest that Merzlikins has been the better goaltender so far. Advanced numbers suggest the same. According to moneypuck.com, in terms of goals saved above expectations:

• Merzlikins: Allowed 14 goals on 13.27 expected goals. The 0.7 goals saved above expectations ranks 29th in the NHL among goals with at least five games played.
• Tarasov: Allowed 24 goals on 19.65 expected goals. The 4.4 goals saved above expectations ranks 45th in the NHL among goals with at least five games played. That’s also fourth-worst in the NHL behind only Stuart Skinner, Connor Ingram and Alexander Georgiev.
• In comparison, Tarasov finished last year with a goals-against-expected 0.0 in 24 games. Merzlikins averaged 6.3 in 41 games. Small sample size warning. Jet Greaves in nine games had a +3.9 goals saved above expectations. All three will be on one-way contracts next season.

Elvis Merzlikins made 28 saves to record his first shutout of the season as a player @BlueJacketsNHL improved to 5-3-1 (11 points).#NHLStats: pic.twitter.com/6ZAahOdUrh

– NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) October 31, 2024

Based on the above, Merzlikins played better while Tarasov played worse. Both have plenty of room for improvement as the season progresses. But it’s Merzlikins’ development that’s been most notable in the early going.

Upcoming Trends to Watch

Here are a few trends to watch for the month of November in the Green Jackets.

• With Merzlikins showing that he has become a better goalkeeper, will the beginnings go like that? We would expect him to get the nod Tuesday night in San Jose and see where it all goes.
• Can the offense keep up with the current pace? Another drop was expected based on shooting percentage. The last two games have shown that.
• The Blue Jackets are allowing less than 30 shots per game on average early. Can they keep it up? That number went from 34.4 last season to 29.2 this season, down five goals per game.
• Adam Fantilli has six points in his first 11 games. Are we approaching an outbreak? Remember he has yet to play one full season. It may not be immediately but the right steps are taken in practice. He is still learning the league.

All in all, it was a surprise to see the Blue Jackets perform well offensively while dominating a few teams along the way. It shows that Evason’s presence was welcomed with open arms. But they still have many questions to answer. Let’s see what November has in store for them.