Here we are. Back with SAGNOF news again as we approach Memorial Day. You had to skip last week’s article as real life sometimes gets in the way of fictional life, and between full-time work and travel and children’s playtimes I couldn’t find time for any evenings last week to get your favorite article out.
This week I wanted to do a quick dive on Brice Turang. Mr. Turang would be leading the MLB in steals if not for that guy named Elly. He stole 26 bases last season in 137 games and has 18 this year. So what is causing the increase? First of all, his ability to get on base seems to have grown in his second full season in the bigs. His plate discipline and increased contact have improved significantly in 2023. Is the sample size small? Anyway, but we’re over the 1/4 mark in the year and he’s gotten 170 plate appearances so it’s not just a blip on the radar.
The batting average is nearly 100 points higher than last season’s .218 effort. A few factors contribute here. First, the BABIP sits at .359. This rate is almost unsustainable, but it was at .342 for a full season in AAA. The increase is due to a significant drop in his cool contact rate from 18.7% last year to 8.4% this season. Second his K-Rate dropped from 21% to 14.2% driven by his O-swing rate dropping from 30.3% to 26.6% and his swing rate dropping from 8.3% to 5.0% . Again, I expect some of this to increase, but I believe that at his pace the decline will have no effect. He could easily end up hitting .300 and if that happens with an 8-10% walk rate the steals will continue.
Brice is still available in some way in 28% of ESPN leagues, so if you need a steal it’s at least worth putting up to see if he’s somehow still being waived.
Here is the current Stolen Base Leaderboard as of Sunday, May 19.
I’m not sure why Acuna decided to stop swiping the bases again or hitting home runs for that matter. Brice Turang is currently 45 years old on the Razzball roster. Acuna at 74th.
Speed Dials
We went to 1 of 4 last week. Keep in mind that these are the exact days to pick up and cast guys in the daily leagues. That means we are now 7 of 28 on the season. A reminder of these statistics and analysis includes data for 2023 and 2024.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers – Wednesday May 22nd
Jake McCarthy – He should be released at a certain time. He is starting over, not walking as he has attempted 4 stolen bases this year. He’s tied for 25th in MLB in rushing so I don’t get it. Maybe the snakes forgot that you are fast? You will face Tyler Glasnow who can be driven from the ground. He has allowed 28 stolen bases over the past two seasons and a .154 SB/IP with a 90.3% success rate against him. When Will Smith is behind the plate it makes it a little stronger. He is #1 in 2024 on the league’s batting average and has struck out 20% of runners since the start of 2023.
Reds vs Padres – Thursday May 23rd
Is Benson – The Reds love to run. They have the pace and passion to put pressure on opposition strikers. Benson clocks in at 28.4 Ft/Second in running speed, but that’s not his issue. Getting on base is as he is currently hitting 39% of his at bats. Hopefully he can avoid that against Matt Waldron and the Padres. Waldron allowed a perfect 11 for 11 steals the past two seasons and a .127 SB/IP. His potential batting partner Luis Campusano is 61 of 67 among professional catchers with runners on base and has allowed all 32 runners to successfully reach second base against him since the start of 2023.
Twins vs Rangers – Friday May 24
Willi Castro – Willi’s success rate is only 6 out of 10 in 2024, and his running speed has dropped to 27.8 Ft/second this year. I think the legs fell off about 27 years old in Minneapolis right Mr. Buxton? Still, he was 33 for 38 last year and he’s in top form so I expect him to improve. Jon Gray is the striker we intend to run on Friday. He actually does a great job of finding home plate and steals are only successful 68% of the time against him, but there are a lot of cars out there. Jonah Heim can be paced with 21 stolen bases this year and only 4 caught stealing.
Padres vs Yankees – Saturday May 25th
Jackson Merrill – He’s not lightning fast at 28.0 Ft/Second in rushing, but he’s 22 for 28 at three levels over the past two seasons in steals. He is currently hitting at a .338 clip and is coming up against Marcus Stroman on Saturday. Stroman is allowing a .113 SB/IP and hasn’t had a runner caught stealing in the past two seasons. Austin Wells and Jose Trevino are less helpful behind the plate both ranking in the bottom third of the pitching metrics among professional catchers.
Next week we’ll look at Catcher’s pitching metrics and who are the best to pitch against, and as always, if you want more next week when we don’t have exact matchups hit me up here. or on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche
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