Catchers Are Too Picky About 2024 Pickoffs

Pickoff catcher is one of my favorite sports in baseball. It’s almost always surprising. Backpicks not only require impressive grip and arm strength on the part of the catcher, but also require a Holmesian ability to read the diamond. Do any runners have cocks? Is the defense ready for the pickoff? Can the team afford to risk a throwing error? A catcher needs to make those decisions quickly, while doing his normal duties behind the plate. It’s not easy.

At that point, I like the catcher pickoffs a lot because they are a good reminder of the level of talent on display in professional baseball. In all my years of playing minor league, I have never seen a catcher strike out a grandmother. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone try. The chances of success were very low, and the risk of catastrophic error was very high. Catch pickoffs are left to the professionals. However this year, even the experts left it to someone else.

Here’s a supercut of every catcher pickoff so far in the 2024 season. You may notice that there aren’t many:

According to records at Baseball Reference, there were a total of seven homers this year. A quarter of the season’s points have passed, which puts the league on pace for 26 quarterbacks in 2024. Last year, there were 49. Over the last two seasons, we’ve seen 51. In the last two decades, there has never been a full season with fewer than 41 picks. The numbers are, perhaps, even more impressive if you remove the counter-listed/caught steals. There were only five opponents this year, making the league good for just 19 at the end of the season:

In 2023, the league leaders in pickoffs were Keibert Ruiz (6), Patrick Bailey (4), and Francisco Alvarez (4). In 2022 and ’23 combined, the leaders were Ruiz (10), Jose Trevino (7), and Elias Díaz (6). Although three of the five catchers spent time in the IL this season, that group still combined to pitch 933.1 innings in 115 games. That’s almost the equivalent of a full season of work behind the plate. They still have to choose one runner.

Here’s another fun way to think about how few pickoffs we’ve seen in 2024. So far this year, there have been more successful home plate steals (9) than successful catches (7). That’s because home theft is over, but still, this doesn’t happen. Like, always:

Going into the 2023 season, I thought we could see an uptick in backpicks. I was completely alone. Willson Contreras, one of the best backpick artists of his generation, noted the fact that the new deportation laws did not limit participation efforts. He said the Cardinals will have to be “smart” about “when our catchers put back runners.” Manager Oliver Marmol sang the same song, praising his new holding skills. He said Contreras will “play a big role” in preventing runners from “extending” their primary and secondary leads. Additional anglers, such as Sean Murphy (“Yeah, that means we’re going to throw more”), and managers, including Gabe Kapler (“We’re stressing the dogs”), made similar comments.

A few months into the 2023 season, Kiri Oler looked at the data and concluded that “the numbers suggest that anglers may be dropping more runners in the name of keeping the runners on top.” He found that backpicks are a more effective tool for eliminating stolen bases than the traditional pitcher’s pickoff throw. However, if the catchers threw back more often, they didn’t get any doubles. Catcher totals across the league were remarkably consistent from 2021 to ’23. Now, in the second season under the new no-huddle rules, the catcher’s pickoffs are disappearing.

This disappearing act is especially notable considering the number of times pop has gone fast in recent years (at least like Ben Clemens’ piece on the stolen rate from last month). Furthermore, it’s not like the runners have been more cautious on the bases this season; if anything, it’s the opposite. The attempted stolen base rate is slightly up, while the stolen base success rate is slightly down. Similarly, runners are getting on base (OOB) and taking extra bases (XBT%) at the same rates as last season, according to Baseball Reference.

Most interestingly, the drop in selection rate did not result in fewer selections overall. Ninety-nine players have been drafted this season, giving the league a league-best 368 picks when the calendar turns to October. That would be the highest total in a single season since 2012. Needless to say, this means that the pot draw is increasing. If current trends hold, pitchers alone will finish the season with more picks (342) than pitchers and catchers. combined in 2023 (341). Pitchers haven’t surpassed the 300-pickoff mark since 2012; they are on track to pass that threshold by 2024.

On the other hand, it makes sense that pitchers can improve their pitching with a full season of new no-hitters under their belts. That said, it stands to reason that racers would also be better off using the new rules. The latest article from Athletic noted that “stolen base percentage actually decreased with each attempted pick off last season, probably because runners weren’t used to exploiting the new rules.” This season, runners are taking full advantage. According to STATS Perform, stolen base percentage after a strikeout [attempts] it is .77 percent. After one, it’s .81. After two, .87.”

So, even though pitchers are getting better at picking runners off, the penalty for a failed strikeout attempt has increased. If so, you might think that catcher’s pickoffs would go up as a result. Taking on the trail of aggressive racers provides opportunity, while the limit of incoherence of grinders provides motivation. The case is strong. However, things did not turn out that way. What about that?

Maybe it’s not really about choice, at least not directly. Instead, catchers may place more emphasis on a different part of their game: framing. Teams knew pitch was important long before they had metrics to measure it. Now that we have the numbers, framing is more popular than ever. As a result, teams may be prioritizing drafting over other strategies (ie pickoffs) in spring training, game plans, and timing. I have already explained how difficult a backpick can be. Now imagine trying to get one out while at the same time trying to steal a strike. Everything is impossible. If anything, I think backpicks have the opposite effect; gaps in the strike zone are more likely to be called balls in attempts to catch the catcher. Indeed, Noah Woodward discovered just that in his Substack episode, Advance Scout. Woodward also suggests that the one-knee-down position, which is known to help stabilize the pitch, makes it harder for anglers to arch their backs. As this pickup setup grows in popularity, it stands to reason that we’ll see a few more pickups.

A good pitch is not nearly as exciting as a successful backpick, nor is a called strike nearly as profitable as a pick. Ultimately, though, there’s more value to be gained from freelancing than midseason backpicks. If the catcher can do one or the other, it’s not hard to see why the draft is successful. Even Wilson Contreras seems to agree with him. Contreras recorded 28 pickoffs from 2016-22 with the Cubs. Throwing behind runners was his signature skill. However, since signing with the Cardinals – who encouraged him to work on his form and switch to the kneeling position – he hasn’t struck out a single runner. The evidence may be circumstantial, but it is still compelling.

When catchers really let pickoffs fall by the wayside in an attempt to steal more strikes, it’s good to remember that pitchers start to falter. In other words, it could be a win-win. Since the introduction of cutoff limits, pitchers have been striking out runners more efficiently than ever before. That means pitcher pickoff attempts are less risky than we thought. Meanwhile, the hunter’s throw still comes with a lot of risk attached; as Kiri explained in his piece last year, the probability of an error is much higher on a catcher’s throw than a pitcher’s pickoff throw. Furthermore, while each pitcher’s strikeout slightly increases the chances of a successful steal, a throwing error only guarantees the runner an extra base. Therefore, if pitchers cannot successfully pick off runners at a high enough rate, the pitcher’s pickoff throw may be a safer defensive option than backpick attempts. So it’s a win for both sides; anglers can be more efficient if they focus on framing over selection, and selection may still be more effective from bowlers than from anglers.

It will take a lot of data before we can say with any certainty that catchers are really moving away from backpicks. After all, we only have seven weeks left in the season. In addition, catcher’s pickoffs remain so low in value that the league’s backpick velocity may increase rapidly. But hey, if we kept waiting to write about trends until they were undeniable, we wouldn’t be doing a very good job of telling the story of the season as it unfolded. Pickoffs, both of the catcher and pitcher variety, are something to watch closely throughout the year. That shouldn’t be difficult to do — the selection is very interesting to watch.

All statistics and rankings until May 16.