The Milwaukee Brewers, in recent history, have tended to shine a little on offense and in the payroll department. That makes Christian Yelich — the team’s leader in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging, and the recipient of nearly a quarter of the team’s major league payroll — a valuable franchise asset. Perhaps to a degree unmatched by any other position player in the competition. (That would be an interesting blog for another day.)
On Tuesday, the Brewers faced a situation prepared for Yelich: 1-0 lead, runners on first and second, two outs, right-hander Julian Merryweather on the mound. Milwaukee had struggled to get even that one run out, and a single by Yelich would have given the Brewers’ bullpen some room to rest. And yet, it was righty Rhys Hoskins out, not Yelich. Hoskins struck out, and the Brewers immediately announced that their left-hander was dealing with a back strain.
Oh, crap.
The news got worse in the cold of the day, as on Wednesday, Yelich revealed to reporters that he had been playing with a back injury for a long time, and despite his best efforts, he had reached the point where he could no longer play. gnaw their teeth and muscles on it. Yelich’s comebacks have been an ongoing problem throughout his career — he’s had some sort of problem in seven of his 12 major league seasons. Most recently, he missed 23 games in April and May of this year due to a back strain. (That’s why Yelich only leads the Brewers’ offense in statistical numbers and not literally every category.)
And even though Yelich started the All-Star Game last week, he has been in and out of the lineup during that time. As of July 11, he’s 1-for-19. He has sat for two of eight games, and then there was a serious incident from Tuesday. So clearly something is wrong. And this doesn’t sound like something a couple Advil and a jar of Tiger Balm can fix. Heading to see a specialist, Yelich is considering the possibility of an intervention aimed not at a quick recovery, but at a permanent solution to his back problems. In other words, season-ending surgery.
This development comes at the wrong time for Yelich, who is (or was) having a much-needed bounce-back year. As you recall, after Yelich arrived in Milwaukee before the 2018 season, he spent two years lighting the world on fire. In 2018 and 2019, he hit .327/.415/.631 with 80 home runs, 63 doubles, and 52 stolen bases in 58 attempts. He finished first, then second, in the MVP voting, and earned a nine-year, $215 million contract extension.
The next five years were uneven, and marked by the complete disappearance of the power that had made him one of the best players in the National League in the late 2010s. But in 2024, he was a monster: .315/.406/.504 with 11 home runs and 21 steals in 22 attempts. As of this writing, he leads the NL in both batting average and OBP. That first All-Star berth wasn’t just a product of aspiration and name recognition — it was deserved.
So let’s assume the worst, that Yelich will stay for a while, and that this late in the year “for a while” means the balance of the season. The manager of the Brewers, Pat Murphy, did not hide that Yelich’s injury leaves his team: “With what Yeli is doing on this list and this team, I don’t know that there are too many players who can replace him… This is huge, no matter how bad it is. . Whatever games we beat him in, it’s serious.” Even in a losing situation the Brewers have already suffered — especially on the pitching side — Yelich is almost irreplaceable.
Murphy said the only way the Brewers could replace the likes would be to trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. And while Murphy was certainly being hyperbolic, I’ve heard worse opinions. Yelich and Guerrero may play different positions, hit different sides of the plate, and look as different as any two players in the league (if you put the two next to each other it gives off big Bert-and-Ernie vibes), but they both get on base and hit. very much the ball down very much.
If there’s any good news for Milwaukee from this injury, it’s that Yelich is playing an easy defense. That gives them more options for replacement. Mainly because Milwaukee’s current first base and DH situation – Hoskins and Jake Bauers – could also use an upgrade. The Brewers are now in a position where just about any bat on the trade market can help them stay safe over the cracks. Brent Rooker is still there, along with the Marlins’ cavalcade of corpses. (Yelich is certainly a reminder of how Milwaukee has benefited from trades with Miami in the past.)
Most likely, the Brewers will look for a solution internally. Partly because they’re not traditionally in the business of getting stars — especially since the pandemic — but because the outfield is one area where the Brewers have actually used a ton of resources since acquiring Yelich.
Milwaukee’s current lineup of Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, and Jackson Chourio includes two recent first-round picks and an international free agent who received a seven-figure bonus as a rookie, followed by an $82 million contract extension before taking his first major. league at-bat.
The Brewers love young, outfielders – all three of Mitchell, Frelick, and Chourio have 90 percent or better field speed. So did Blake Perkins, who had pitched both innings since halftime before Yelich’s injury but started in the middle against Milwaukee on Wednesday. In case you weren’t convinced that the Brewers have a brand, they just broke the number. 17 draft pick out of Texas high school Braylon Payne, one of the fastest players in the class. (Payne, born August 2006, God help us all, is clearly not going to be the solution anytime soon.)
Joey Wiemer can also run, although he showed in 132 games last year that hitting is a different story. Still, he puts up big numbers on the bases (.376 OBP, though he has just a .365 SLG) in Triple-A, making him an option if the Brewers need a body.
I’m sure Murphy and Brewers GM Matt Arnold would love nothing more than to see their new spark plug lineup flourish over the next two months. Mitchell has just broken into the everyday lineup, but Chourio, Perkins, and Frelick all have something like 300 plate appearances this year. The results were…OK: Matching wRC+ grades of 96 for Chourio and Perkins, 98 for Frelick.
If the Brewers want to get creative, they can once again draw from their depth to add pop to the lineup. When Yelich left IL, the accompanying move was the performance of Gary Sánchez. That means Milwaukee currently carries three catchers: Sánchez, William Contreras, and Eric Haase. And somehow, all three can hit. (Or at least they be hit within recent memory.) Haase and Contreras also have at least token outfield experience in the majors, not that the Brewers are likely to tell their franchise backstop to ditch his gear and go out in left. It’s possible that Haase or Sánchez end up seeing more hitting opportunities to balance out a suddenly light starting pitching.
Then there’s Milwaukee’s biggest advantage in dealing with Yelich’s absence: A six-game lead in the NL Central with 61 games to play. Considering the nearly 80-point difference in OBP between Yelich and – for argument’s sake – Perkins, and four plate appearances per game, downgrading from an All-Star to one of the Cubs should cost the Brewers… let’s call it an extra subtraction -20 in the next two months and change. If you look closely, you will never know the difference. Even at worst, some things will have to go wrong for the Brewers to win this division.
Of course, if you’re reading this you probably know what happens to the Brewers after they make the playoffs. From that run to Game 7 of the 2018 NLCS – I liked that team, for what it’s worth. It was a lot of fun to watch – Milwaukee has made the playoffs four times in five years. The Brewers have failed to win a series in those four trips to the postseason, and are 1-8 on a per-game basis despite never allowing more than six runs in a game. That’s because, in those nine games, they have the goal 16 runs in total and was dismissed three times.
Murphy’s right: Yelich’s loss will be felt deeply in the clubhouse and on an intangible level. And for a long time there is no way to change his bat without a big move. The Brewers will likely be fine for the rest of the regular season. But in the playoffs, where runs are hard to come by, it’s a different story. Consider a situation like the one the Brewers faced Tuesday: Eighth inning of a 1-0 game, two runners on base, two outs. If that comes in the playoffs, that’s when they’ll really miss Yelich.
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