Forget Youth, Older NHL Teams Win Stanley Cups – Hockey Writers – Commentary

Sometimes I can be a fool, especially when it comes to “new.” Sure, I’m only 27, but I’m almost a decade removed from high school so I think I have a claim to be one. I’m not saying I’m okay with behaving like this. I’m just trying to be honest. And in that honest vein, nothing brings out my skepticism like discussing young players in the NHL.

Today, the NHL is full of young players who are electric, never before seen on the ice. Whether it’s creative ways to score, pass, slide, or celebrate, the excitement for the talent in the league is palpable. The NHL is their oyster, and the big paydays they’re securing prove it.

Usually, in my addiction, I didn’t like to pay attention and insist on what these kids wanted—perhaps relying on a certain line, “They need to get it,” to justify my craziness (again, I’m not saying I’m right). But recently, I was listening to Jack Michaels, the broadcaster for the Edmonton Oilers, on Spittin’ Chiclets, and he said something that caught my attention and made me put aside my baseless prejudice against NHL juniors.

Discussing the years after the Oilers first drafted Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Michaels said, “It was bad back then for those young Oiler teams. They didn’t have the muscle, they didn’t have the cunning of the veterans, which is obvious because the Oilers today are the oldest team in the league.”

Michaels explains how the Oilers have aged, right before our eyes, into a Stanley Cup contender. No matter how talented the team was, some missing parts prevented it from defeating the juggernauts of the time.

Those missing ingredients were age and experience.

The way Michaels planned the development of the Oilers made me wonder about the average age of NHL teams when they win the Stanley Cup. Then (after I told my curmudgeon-ness to shut up) I wondered if teams armed with “small guns” win championships. Finally, I thought, “Can we predict the next Stanley Cup champion based on the average age of the team?”

We will be examining those three questions. Hopefully, along the way, I can learn to look beyond my intellect, and maybe, just maybe, we can all learn something about ourselves, or at least the groups we love.

Defining our Terms

Before we get into the math, let’s define our goals. A “young” player will be anyone 24 years of age and under. Twenty-four provides a reasonable tethering environment for players of different levels. Something like Connor Bedard would be in the NHL for six years at the age of 24, but no one would consider him old at the time. Some players who don’t enter the NHL until they’re 21 or 22 will still have two or three years under their belts by the time they’re 24. Again, with such little experience, these players would not be considered seniors.

Anyone over the age of 25 is straight-aged. I mean old as dirt. I’m really kidding, but I like 25 as a benchmark for “mature” players because players will have had some NHL experience by that age and will be starting to enter the prime of their career (think Nathan MacKinnon who elevated the game a few years ago).

To determine the average age of a team, we use Hockey Reference and look at the ages of the Stanley Cup champions in Feb. 1 for the regular season and the average age of their roster in the playoffs. Having both is important because it shows how the team entered the play-offs and how the team won. As we all sometimes remember Cale Makar decided to make his NHL debut in the postseason at the age of 20 and change all the numbers. Gosh, youth, am I right?

Those are the basic rules. Let’s dive in.

Average Age of the last 10 Stanley Cup Champions

This leg of our work is straightforward. Below, you’ll see the 10 Stanley Cup champions and their average age for regular season and postseason programs.

Well, sorry guys, these championship teams were old. Every single replica has lasted well over 25 years of age. The 2024 Panthers had the oldest regular season roster and the second oldest postseason roster (after a three-way tie for the first). Meanwhile, the 2014 Kings boasted a regular season roster, while the 2018 Capitals surprisingly won with a small postseason roster.

Related: The best NHL players by age in 2024-25

The distance between the oldest and youngest groups was just 2.9 years. Furthermore, the dip in the average age of teams in the postseason is because the postseason rosters include everyone who played at least one game, so we have guys like Shane Gersich playing one playoff game for the 2018 Capitals, effectively lowering that average age (tell me you guys make it all difficult). Meaning, if we remove these players, that 2.9 year gap would shrink to an even smaller number.

All that being said, there’s no getting away from the fact that these teams are old. Even if we increase the limit from 25 to 26, we will not eliminate any of these champions. Setting the “old” bar at only 27 was released by the 2018 Capitals and the 2019 Blues. Put another way, the youngest postseason roster, the 2018 Chiefs, is 2.6 years older than the 24-year benchmark we set for being considered young. Old (old) teams win. It’s that simple.

What You Take From The Numbers

You might say to yourself, “Nick, of course, the old teams win. That is obvious. We didn’t need your table to show us that.” To that, I said, “How old are you? 12? Stop me.”

No, all I can really say is, I agree. It seems obvious that teams with age, experience, and grit win the Stanley Cup. What Jack Michaels said is true, and we know that for sure. Or us?

Many, many hockey experts had high expectations for the New Jersey Devils last season. Sportsnet, for example, had the team as the fifth best team heading into this season. Unfortunately, they didn’t make the play-offs, and the average age of the teams tells us that we shouldn’t be surprised. The Devils were the eighth-youngest team on opening night of the 2023-24 season.

A closer look at the numbers reveals a pattern. There is a sweet spot about the age of the players.

There are a lot of older players and less chance of making the playoffs (the Pittsburgh Penguins were the oldest team on opening night). A team full of very young talent will miss the postseason again (the Buffalo Sabers were the youngest). However, if you are forced to judge old or young, you may want to keep the veterans. Of the eight smallest teams at the start of the 2023-24 season, only one (the Devils) made the playoffs. Meanwhile, of the eight old teams, five advanced to the playoffs.

Of course, opening night rosters aren’t the most accurate representations of teams’ stats throughout the season. Players will be sent down and called up to the American Hockey League (AHL). Injuries will sideline the boys. Traders will bring in new faces while sending out familiar ones. Still, the numbers highlight an underlying pattern that can’t be ignored. Older groups fare better.

Predicting the Next Cup Champion

Now that I’ve proven that I have every right to be a curmudgeon (the numbers don’t lie!), we set the stage for predicting the next Stanley Cup champion. Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait for the average age of NHL teams to arrive after the season opener on Oct. 8. In the meantime, check out what moves your favorite team made during the offseason. Do they add older players (wink, wink, wink, wink, the Devils are adding 34-year-old goaltender Jakob Markstrom)? Do they need to be small (cough Penguins)? Is Nick Haydon always right, and why is the answer yes?