India, Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa battle it out to reach World Test Championship final

Admin October 2, 2024

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India, Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa battle it out to reach World Test Championship final

With 10 series (26 Tests) remaining in the current round of the World Test Championship, the race for the top two spots is heating up. Here’s a look at how the teams are ranked, and their chances of getting in.

Sri Lanka
Scoring percentage: 55.56, remaining series: SA (two Tests away), Aus (two at home)

With a total of 24 points earned in the last two Tests, Sri Lanka made a strong push to reach the final two in this round of the WTC. Their remaining four Tests will be against two opponents who will also enter the final. If they win each of those games and take home 48 more points (remember that undervaluation is always dangerous), they will finish at 69.23% and guarantee themselves the last place regardless of other results. If it loses one and wins three, it will end up at 61.54, which will still leave it with a chance to qualify for other results.

India
Score percentage: 74.24, remaining series: NZ (home three), Aus (home five)

Their impressive win in Kanpur further cemented India’s place at the top. A win in each of the remaining eight Tests will take them to 85.09%, but the realistic aim for them will be to ensure they get enough points to book their place in the WTC finals regardless of other results. For that, they need at least four wins and two draws (56 points), which will take them to 67.54. South Africa can reach 69.44 if they win each of the remaining six Tests, but Australia can only reach 64.04 with four wins and two draws (assuming they lose one to India and draw two, then win the other four).

If India scores less than 56, there is a good chance that it will not be in the top two. For example, if they win four and draw one (52 points), it is possible that Australia and South Africa will overtake them.

Sri Lanka can also finish with more than 67 percent, but a win will cost Australia and South Africa points. That will be in India’s favor as Australia and South Africa may end up under India.

Bangladesh
Score percentage: 34.38, remaining series: WI (two away), SA (two home)

The two defeats to India hurt Bangladesh badly – from 45.83% to 34.38. Even if they win each of the remaining four Tests, they will only climb to 56.25. Even so, it is unlikely that there will be enough space for the top two.

New Zealand
Score percentage: 37.50, remaining series: Ind (three away), Eng (three home)

While New Zealand can still finish with a percentage as high as 64.29 if they win all six Tests, recent form suggests they won’t get close to that figure. That’s because three of those Tests in India – easily the most difficult task in Test cricket – after being beaten 2-0 in Sri Lanka. Even if they win four out of six Tests and lose two, they will finish at 50%.

Australia
Score percentage: 62.50, remaining series: Ind (five home), SL (two away)

Currently in second place at 62.5%, Australia can finish at 76.32 if they win each of the remaining seven Tests. The two teams playing the rest of the series, India and Sri Lanka, are also fighting hard for the final, so their victory will help Australia doubly. Five wins will increase their percentage to 65.79, but India and South Africa can still surpass them. Things will be clearer when they open the series against India, however, as the visitors will have completed their three Tests at home against New Zealand.

South Africa
Score percentage: 38.89, remaining series: SL (two home), Pak (two home), Ban (two away)

If South Africa win each of the remaining six Tests they will finish with 69.44%, which will be enough to qualify, as only one in India or Australia can surpass that figure. Five wins and a draw would put them at 63.89 which would still keep them in contention, while five wins and a loss would drop the percentage down to 61.11, which would still give them a chance if other results could happen.

In England
Scoring percentage: 42.19, remaining series: Pak (three runs), NZ (three runs)

England’s unexpected defeat in the last Test against Sri Lanka means they will no longer be able to break 60% this cycle. The highest average they can achieve with a win in their remaining six Tests is 57.95. In order to qualify for points, they will need a few more results to work for them.

Pakistan
Score percentage: 19.05, remaining series: Eng (three home), SA (two away), WI (two home)

Pakistan’s shambolic series against Bangladesh – not only did they lose 2-0, they also dropped six points due to the slow pace of the rankings – meant their percentage dropped from 36.66% at the start of the series to 19.05. From here, the maximum they can achieve is 59.52, if they win each of the remaining seven Tests. Their recent performance does not suggest that Pakistan will come close to achieving this.

The West Indies
Percentage: 18.52, remaining series: Ban (two home), Pak (two away)

West Indies have already played four series and have collected only 20 runs out of 108 runs. Even if it wins its last four Tests, it would finish at 43.59%.

US Rajesh is the statistics editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats

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Admin October 2, 2024

0 0 4 minutes read