Jack Flaherty it was one of the most interesting mid-range startup dishes in last year’s freestyle class. The righty was arguably the best pitcher in MLB in the second half of 2019, but he didn’t establish himself as an ace over the next few seasons. He struggled in nine games during the shortened season. Oblique and shoulder injuries cost him good chunks of the 2021 and ’22 campaigns, respectively. Flaherty stayed healthy in his walk year but allowed nearly five earned runs in nine innings between the Cardinals and Orioles.
That left his camp and interested parties with questions when he hit the market. Was Flaherty still an upside game that had a real chance to convert high-scoring results? If he feels that way, would he be better off taking a one-year deal and testing the market again next year? At 28, Flaherty was one of the youngest free agents. He ultimately chose the one-year route, signing a $14MM guarantee with the Tigers that included another $1MM in performance bonuses.
It’s too early to say for sure whether the move has been successful, but his first month in Detroit has been better than expected. Flaherty’s even 4.00 earned run average in 36 innings is not very impressive. However, he leads the American League with 50 strikeouts and only five walks. His 16.4% swinging strikeout percentage would easily be a career high. It is almost six points less than last season.
Among pitchers with 30+ innings, only Freddy Peralta has a higher strikeout rate than Flaherty at 34%. Jared Jones he is the only pitcher to get more whiffs per pitch. Flaherty is coming off a career-high 14 hits in Tuesday’s game against former teammates with the St. Louis Cardinals.
There’s only so much a player can prove in a six-game sample, but Flaherty hasn’t missed at-bats at anything close to this level in five years. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder, we see that Flaherty hasn’t recorded more than 40 strikeouts in any six-game span since his impressive 2019 finish. Although the ERA is not yet up, Flaherty dominates the strike zone. in a way he hasn’t had in a long time.
Things went slow for Flaherty at first. His fastball averaged 93.8 MPH, nearly half a mile per hour more than where it sat two seasons ago. Perhaps most influential was the increasing success of his hacks. Flaherty’s best pitch, his slider, is missing at-bats at a high level after declining in 2022-23. Opponents have come up empty in half the time they’ve given up on his curveball. Flaherty is hitting hitters, especially left-handed hitters, with breaking pitches more often than in previous seasons.
There is still a long way to go before he can put questions about his 2021-23 performance behind him completely. As the season progresses, he will face stronger opposition than he has faced thus far. In his six starts, four came against teams (White Sox, A’s, Rays and Cardinals) who were playing offensively. Only two of his starts against the Twins were against a club with an above-average batting lineup. While Minnesota has been solid in general, it is a high hitting offense.
But if Flaherty stays healthy and continues to beat opponents at anything close to this level, he’ll be in line for a lucrative free agent trip. He will play the rest of next season at age 29, which is relatively young to start a free agent. He’d be a worthy candidate (assuming the Tigers stay in the postseason mix and don’t trade him at the deadline), but he shouldn’t have too much trouble turning that down and getting a better multi-year deal.
The next winter phase has many variations but interesting beginners who can improve their stocks dramatically in the next five months (ie. Luis Severino, Walker Buehler, Frankie Montas, Blake Snell). Flaherty has a legitimate path to the top of that group, which would make him the #3 pitcher available. Corbin Burns again Fried Max.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.
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