Jarren Duran Becomes a Commercial Master

The Red Sox have been lucky the last few weeks. Their 16-6 record since June 12 is the best in baseball, and they have increased their playoff chances to a season-high 48.0%, an outstanding performance for a team that entered the year with a sub-.500 projection. In a tight AL Wild Card race, they need all of these recent victories, as Dan Szymborski recently discovered that Boston’s playoff hopes are more sensitive to small changes in circumstances than any other team’s. As the trade deadline approaches, the Red Sox may find themselves in the hunt for some big names. Much of their current success, however, is due to major improvements from players on the current roster, such as pitchers Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford and catcher Connor Wong, who Jay Jaffe wrote about yesterday. And no Red Sox player has rated his game more than the team’s current leader in plate appearances, runs scored, and MPI: Jarren Duran.

Duran’s breakout came in his first full-time game; after mugs in 2021 and ’22, he served as the team’s tight end last season, amassing a 120+ wRC+ in 362 plate appearances. But there were some signs of regression in the future, as he outperformed his xwOBA by 35 points and relied on a .381 BABIP to slash .295/.346/.482. And while those raw numbers from 2023 actually declined this season, to .275/.337/.473, Duran put up a nearly identical wRC+ of 121. What’s even more encouraging is that he has very strong peripherals to back up his batting line. slash this year, which shows that his current production is stable.

The biggest change we’ve seen from Duran in 2024 is in his approach at the plate. Earlier, it seemed that his goal was to swing at anything near the bat and put the ball in play; he gave first place about 40% of the time. And although this strategy worked for him because he made a lot of contact, often on the line, his success depended on well-placed balls in play and he did not use his full potential. Instead, it felt like he was sacrificing damage for contact, an unnecessary tradeoff given his strong ability to hit the ball, especially on strikeouts. His power numbers last year — a 20th percentile rate and 35th percentile xSLG — were far from what he was capable of.

While Duran doesn’t look like the hardest hitter on the field, he has excellent raw power, with a top exit velocity of over 112.5 mph over the past two seasons. He is most dangerous against deep and inside pitches, where his bat speed, exit velocity, and overall production are at their best. In comparison, he produced poor run rates against pitches that were third or more out of the zone, as his long swings could not cover the required distance in time. Understanding this, Duran has made a great choice. He’s cut his first-pitch swing rate nearly in half, watching such offerings pass almost to Mike Trout levels. He lowered his swing rate in cold spots by nine points, in addition to a reduction in chase rate. The results of this adjustment were amazing, and Duran looked like a brand new person this year. Even without the increase in raw power, Duran’s focus on swinging only at leadoff pitches has increased his barrel rate above the league average, as well as his xSLG and xwOBA. Additionally, his taking more called strikes has helped him more than his power numbers: His strikeout and walk rates have improved in his new form.

Incredibly, Duran had 34 doubles last year, 10 more two-bagger than any other hitter in 50 trips to the plate this season. As we know, as many young players gain more experience, they learn to turn those double base hits into home runs – or as Kiri Oler called this development, “summiting Doubles to Dingers Mountain” – so it’s not all that surprising that Duran is hitting a few doubles as they add power. Except, well, he’s delivering home runs at about the same rate as last year, in 2.4% of his plate appearances this season, up slightly from 2.2%. Instead, he’s managed to combine his power production in a very unusual way: He’s hitting triples. He still has the most doubles (24, tied for fifth most in baseball), but he leads the majors with 10 triples, eight more than he hit last season. Overall, he ranks fifth in the majors with 44 extra-base hits. He takes full advantage of the size of his home field, as Fenway’s deep right field gap and the Green Monster in left make it a ballpark perfect for doubles in big games, especially for left-handed hitters, and fifths for many. triples-friendly park. This season, Duran has 18 doubles in just 133 home runs. Specifically, Duran’s ability to hit Monster balls is unmatched. I looked at the batting charts of some of the Red Sox’s most powerful hitters in recent memory — Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts — and no one used their defining characteristic of the ballpark anywhere near as much as Duran did in 2024.

Most of Duran’s 34 combined doubles and triples this year have been the result of his speed on the down routes, scrambling to take the extra bag at every opportunity. He’s always had speed plus a plus, and using Statcast’s new baserunning leaderboard, we can see the number of runs for every single he’s extended into a double or a base taken from a teammate’s hit. Duran ranks third in the league in runs scored as a result of his aggressiveness, and while a number of runners have produced negative numbers by being overly cautious, Duran’s fearlessness has paid off. Aggressive baserunning has been a key part of Boston’s offensive development this year. The Red Sox moved up to seventh in extra-base hit compared to 25th last year. Statcast views them as the fourth best baserunning team in baseball. When you combine this with Duran’s 21 steals in 24 attempts, the result is one of the most important rushers in the league; other than Duran, only Corbin Carroll and Elly De La Cruz are in the 1-WAR category from a single run.

While Duran has solidified his approach at the plate and maintained his brilliance on the bases, the area where he has seen dramatic improvement this year is with his glove. Despite his 95th percentile sprint speed, Duran’s previous performance in the outfield, especially in center, left a lot to be desired; reached 5 FRV from 2021-23. Most of his poor plays occurred when he had to cover long distances on successful routes; it was so bad that he appeared in an article I wrote last year because of his bad route. In that piece, I found that there was a negative correlation between route efficiency and overall OAA, as the outfielder’s initial reaction and burst speed were the most important factors. Duran has been a prime example of this: His routes are still tough, but his overall defensive game has greatly improved. His +5 FRV ranks in the 89th percentile (though second only to Ceddanne Rafaela in his outfield position), and only Daulton Varsho has a higher DRS than Duran’s 12 among outfielders.

Duran’s reaction and first steps improved to the point where his routes didn’t affect his ability to get the ball. Last year, he failed to make two difficult-but-possible plays that involved covering more than 100 yards to make a catch; this year he is a perfect 4-for-4. However, the plays that changed his defensive metrics from below average to excellent aren’t long runs but line drives, where instinct and first reaction are everything. In 2024, Duran had 11 chances to make plays between 30 and 50 yards from him with less than four seconds to catch. He converted 10 of them, contributing half of his OAA total. Although he has been equally successful at holding these tight liners in previous seasons, he has had few opportunities to play like that. Duran isn’t doing anything different with his pitching this year, so it remains to be seen if he’ll continue to get more opportunities to catch these hard liners. However, it can be said that he made the most of the playing opportunities given to him.

With the All-Star break just around the corner, the Red Sox are as close to coin-flip playoff odds as any club, and the high level they’ve played under combined with their meteoric performance over the past few weeks has made them one of the biggest teams. fun teams in baseball to watch. And at the center of it is homegrown All-Star Duran, whose improvement has been evident in all aspects of his game.