Josh Smith Cuts to the Heart and Breaks Up

A friend of mine is a huge Cleveland Guardian fan, and the other night we were discussing the award possibilities of some of their top players. He established Emmanuel Clase as a Cy Young candidate – which is, side note: Did you see his record ERA with Cleveland when he led off after eight innings this year? – but I was more interested in where José Ramírez and Steven Kwan would end up in the MVP race. I lifted our boards to see where they were standing and was greeted with a surprise that had nothing to do with the guard:

Huh? Josh Smith? The same Josh Smith who hit under the Mendoza Line in his first two major league seasons? The one who didn’t get a single postseason plate appearance last year? Who didn’t make the opening day schedule this season? In a way, yes.

For the first half of the 2024 campaign, that Josh Smith has been the most productive hitter on the Texas Rangers roster. Of course, that doesn’t account for how well the 26-year-old has played this season — after all, that roster is injury-laden and dysfunctional — but you can take 25 points off his wRC+ and he’ll still be a lot better. the beater. Fortunately, the Yankees included Smith in their 2021 trade for Joey Gallo, so no shaving is necessary.

What’s more, Smith isn’t just the best relative of the Rangers’ band of bangless bangers. On the contrary, his status as a top hitter this season is undeniable. Here’s where Smith ranks among American League professional hitters:

So what is behind Smith’s surgery? The most obvious thing to point out is his condition. According to Shawn McFarland of Dallas Morning News, Smith changed his setup and loading in the offseason while working at Texas’ Globe Life Field with Seth Conner, the team’s assistant hitting coach. Smith is much smaller now than he was a year ago, and he’s moved to a “rolled-up” load – meaning he keeps his head centered on his body through his swing until he makes contact. The goal of this adjustment was to cut down on strikeouts and fly balls, hit more line drives, and get back to the contact-oriented approach that made him top 100 a few years ago.

“I decided to change it because I was hitting 50,” Smith told McFarland in April. “That was annoying, so I decided to make some changes.”

His true batting average last year (.185) was not indeed that’s bad, but regardless, if you want to increase your average, hitting less and more drives is a good place to start.

Midway through this season, Smith’s changes have worked as intended. His strikeout rate dropped from 23.7% last year to 19.2% this year, and his 34.9% fly rate dropped from 40.4% last year. Meanwhile, he has increased his call rate by 10.4 percentage points (25.3%, from 14.9%). That’s a huge jump among the 188 players who recorded at least 200 plate appearances in both 2023 and ’24:

Smith said that in his first two seasons, he stuck to the power push. He was chasing fly balls because he thought that was the only way to stick in the big leagues. In some ways, he got what he wanted last year: He significantly increased his barrel rate (10.5%, up from 2.4% in 2022) and average exit velocity (88.5 mph, up from 87.0). And last year was better at the plate in his terrible rookie campaign, but that’s like saying the 1963 Mets were better than the ’62 Mets – they were better, but only because they couldn’t have been worse:

In the offseason, after winning the World Series, Smith concluded that he wasn’t going to cut it short. At 5-foot-10 and 172 pounds, he couldn’t generate enough power to make his 2023 approach worthwhile. So he started working with Conner and the early return was promising, as Smith had a good spring training (154 wRC + in 49 plate appearances). He made the Opening Day roster mainly because of his positional flexibility, but he was a backup and playing time wasn’t guaranteed.

That is, until third baseman Josh Jung broke his wrist in the fourth game of the season, requiring surgery. Smith came into his own as the team’s tight end but quickly moved into the everyday lineup. From his start on April 2 through the end of that month, Smith hit .321/.415/.506 in 94 plate appearances, good for a 163 wRC+. He never looked back, moved up the batting order and settled at no. 3 holes. Even with Jung set to return to the lineup, manager Bruce Bochy said Smith has earned the starting spot, though where he plays will depend on the day.

Reducing his stance and bulking up his load has helped Smith get into a better hitting position, but getting into a good hitting position and actually doing it are two different things. That brings us to the key to Smith’s success: He makes the best swing decisions.

Inspired by teammate Corey Seager, Smith has begun hunting pitches in the heart of the plate. Sounds obvious, right? Swipe on the most hitable areas. Duh! But that’s easier said than done when you’re in the box and trying to adjust to 100-mph heaters while also worrying about breaking pitches. In Seager, Smith saw the benefits of an aggressive approach and realized that he was thinking too much about things in the box.

Now he’s stripped down the basics so much that I’m cringing as I write this because it sounds like I went to the Crash Davis School of Baseball Clichés: Swing in good spots, don’t try to do too much. , hit line drives. But this indeed that’s what Smith does. Check this out:

Smith was very good at hunting down the first pitches in the Heart Zone:

This season, sandwiched between Seager and Adolis García for most of the game, Smith is seeing first pitches in the Heart Zone at a higher rate, and when he does, he’s chopping and ripping.

There are some questions about the sustainability of Smith’s streak. He’s doing better than his expected stats (.244 xBA, .350 xSLG, .314 xwOBA), and it seems unlikely that pitchers will keep considering him this many ways. But, even if the decline is to slow down, it’s hard to imagine that Smith will be as bad as he was in his first two seasons. With his new system and approach, his foundation as a linebacker should help him mitigate his slump and produce as a solid contributor to the program, if not the dominant offensive force he’s had this season.