July 24: Gray underwent a Tommy John procedure and an internal brace, tweets Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. He will miss at least most of next season.
July 19: The nation of the right Josiah Gray diagnosed with a torn ulnar part of his right elbow and will undergo season-ending surgery next week, tweets Bobby Blanco of MASNsports.com. Gray tells reporters that it has not been decided whether he will have traditional Tommy John surgery, an internal brace procedure or a combination of the two (X link via Andrew Golden of the Washington Post). That determination won’t be made until he has surgery, but he’ll be out until next season regardless.
Gray, 26, came to the Nats along with a catcher Keibert Ruiz in the blockbuster 2021 submission deadline Max Scherzer again Trea Turner to the Dodgers. He entered the Nats’ rotation that summer and has been on the staff ever since, though he was healthy enough to start two games in 2024. Gray has allowed 13 runs in just 8 1/3 innings in those two games. before heading to the injured joint with a flexor strain.
A few weeks ago, things seemed to be going well for Gray. He came out on a minor league rehab assignment on June 9 and, after his first outing, allowed four runs in 15 innings over his three starts. He threw six innings in a Triple-A appearance on June 25 and allowed one run on four hits and no walks with four strikeouts. At the time, it seemed that with another rehab trip, Gray would be cleared to rejoin the Nationals rotation.
However, his next start had disastrous results. He was burned for seven runs in just three innings and left the game injured – this time with discomfort in his right elbow. More testing was done, and Gray unfortunately received the worst condition of any pitcher when he was tested on his elbow.
A former second-round pick, Gray was long considered an elite player before his big league debut — not because of an ace-caliber ceiling but because he was considered a third or fourth starter. In 2023, he looked like that out for the Nats, throwing 159 innings with a 3.91 ERA. Gray’s 20.5% strikeout rate and especially his 11.5% walk rate were worse than the league average, but he greatly reduced his previous home run problems last season. Even with the low strikeout and walk rates, Gray looked the part of a back-to-back starter, and since he was just entering his age-26 season, the opportunity for another step forward was still there.
Now, he will be sidelined for his age-27 campaign – potentially missing most of next season, depending on the extent of the surgery he needs. A Tommy John or Tommy John/combination internal brace may come with a recovery timeline of up to 14 months. If his recovery is on the long side, it’s possible this injury will keep him out until Opening Day 2026.
Gray entered the 2024 season with 2.075 years of service. He has been picking up big league time on the injured list and will continue to do so through the rest of the year. He will finish in 3.075 years and be eligible for arbitration for the first time. He’s focused on the team’s plans and has three seasons of control left before this year, so there’s no chance he’ll be considered a non-tender, even if he might miss all of next year.
Getting Gray out of the rotation is a key point in the Nationals’ vision for the next year and beyond. With Patrick Corbin out of the books and high probability Cade Cavalli soon to return from his own Tommy John procedure, the Nats can look forward to the 2025 rotation of Gray, Cavalli, MacKenzie Goreexplosion is fine Jake Irvin and an impressive rookie Mitchell Parker – we can’t say anything about any potential off-season additions to the game’s staff.
With Gray now on the shelf, that will only add more incentive for longtime baseball ops leader Mike Rizzo to add some rotation help this winter (or maybe get an arm closer to MLB at this month’s July 30th trade deadline). The Nationals aren’t quite done with their rebuilding effort – they’re making trades Hunter Harvey last week and was able to trade well Kyle Finnegan, Jesse Winker and others before the deadline – but still in the final stages. James Wood, the No. 1 game by Baseball America, made its debut earlier this month. Gore, CJ Abrams again Luis Garcia Jr. they have established themselves as key players this season. Last year’s No. 2 overall pick, Dylan Crews, should make his league debut before too long. Things are looking up, but Gray’s injury is a setback of some note that should figure into the organization’s outlook for the offseason.
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