The Mariners announced that they have signed an outfielder Victor Robles in the extension of the contract. It reportedly guarantees him $9.75MM over the next two years, including a $1.25MM signing bonus. He can earn an additional $2MM in bonuses/moving ladders, $1MM per season, $500K for reaching 500 plate appearances and another $500K for 600 plate appearances. The Mariners will have a $9MM club option for 2027. Robles is represented by Republik Sports.
The deal is an indication of how amazing Robles’ turnaround has been in the past two months. After years of struggling with the Nationals, he was called to action at the end of May. It is said that they then looked for a trade with other clubs but did not find any. Since Robles had enough service time to decline a direct assignment while keeping the remainder of this year’s $2.65MM salary, the Nats immediately released him.
The Mariners shot him, which was harmless. The Nats still had a share of most of his salary, leaving the Mariners to pay the minor league fee, which was deducted from what the Nats paid.
For that small investment, the Mariners have already been richly rewarded. In 42 games for Seattle, he has three home runs and a .303/.372/.450 batting line. That’s 39% better than the league average, per wRC+. His .349 batting average on balls in play is quite high but he is only hitting 16.3% and that would be a strong offense even if he regresses a bit.
That’s especially true because Robles can provide value even without a bat in his hands. He has stolen 12 bases in 12 tries since arriving in Seattle and has provided adept glovework in the outfield, playing all three spots on the grass. FanGraphs calculates that he earned 1.2 wins over a replacement in his short stint with the Mariners.
That has been especially helpful for a club that has struggled to create damage this year. They have arguably the best pitching staff in the league, with their team hitting 3.42 best in the majors, but a lack of punch at the plate has them fighting for their lives. They are 63-56, effectively even with the Astros in the division but 2.5 games back of the Wild Card spot.
Robles was a free agent but the Mariners have seen enough that they are willing to keep him around for another two or three years. Of course, they don’t just make this decision because of the 42 games he has played since changing uniforms. During his time with the Nats, he was once considered one of the best prospects in sports. He was ranked in Baseball America’s top 100 for four straight seasons from 2016 to 2019, reaching fifth overall in 2018.
He looked set to do just that in 2019, helping the Nats win the World Series that year. His .255/.326/.419 batting line was a bit underwhelming, translating to a 92 wRC+, but he was able to generate 3.7 fWAR thanks to defense and speed. He stole 28 bases on the year, recorded 25 Defensive Runs Saved and 21 Outs Above Average. Given that he was only 22 at the time, it seemed fair to expect that he was only scratching the surface of the player he would become.
Unfortunately, the opposite happened, as his performance declined dramatically over the next few years. In the 2020-22 seasons, he hit just .216/.291/.306 with a wRC+ of 66. He spent some time on the injury list but that was a significant sample size of 965 plate appearances.
Despite those odds, the Nats stuck with him, offering him contracts as he reached arbitration. He seemed to get things back on track last year, as he hit .299/.385/.364 with a wRC+ of 112, but was limited to just 36 games this season due to back spasms in the lumbar spine. Still, the Nats agreed to the aforementioned $2.65MM salary for 2024, hoping Robles can stay healthy and put his past struggles behind him. But the year got off to a shaky start, as Robles missed nearly a month with a strained left hamstring and hit just .120/.281/.120 in 14 games for Washington before they decided to release him.
The Mariners have been gifted the version of Robles that the Nats thought they had many times in the past. The combination of his past pedigree and recent performance has given the M’s hope that Robles can continue to produce for a few more years. Obviously there is some risk depending on how well he hasn’t done in the past, but they aren’t sticking their necks out for big bucks either.
The guarantee works out to less than $5MM per year, which is modest in baseball terms. Even if Robles takes a step back at the plate and is simply a fourth baseman who plays speed and defense, that’s not a huge waste of resources. And if he can’t keep hitting, then a lot can go wrong for the M’s.
For Robles, he’s probably leaving a little money on the table here, but it’s also understandable that he’d want to lock up some significant cash. If he had continued to perform at this level throughout the season, he would have received a greater guarantee than the one he is currently accepting. But as he knows for sure on the way to the end of his career, there is no guarantee that he will continue to do so well. After all, it was two months ago when all the clubs in the league had the chance to get him since he was on a low salary. Had Robles been injured again or simply struggled at the plate, he may not have been able to get a hit of this magnitude.
And he still has the potential for the future to put in if he keeps doing it. Because he started playing at such a young age, he is only 27 years old. The deal will cover his age 28 and 29 seasons with an option that gives the M’s the option to control him through his age 30 season. If he is able to continue his performance during this contract, he may set himself up for a big contract at that time. If the option is activated and he hits that escalator, he’ll already be banking $20.75MM on the deal.
The Mariners also get a head start on solidifying their future outfield. They already have it Julio Rodríguez closed for many years and recently discovered Randy Arozarena is arbitration-controllable until 2026. Mitch Haniger he still has one year left on his contract after this and the club also has pre-arb boys Luke Raley again Dominic Canzone in the mix, although Raley is getting more playing time at first base lately. Justin Turner Figures he will be at the top pick this year but will be an upcoming free agent.
It’s a crowded mix, no doubt, but baseball president Jerry Dipoto is one of the game’s most active decision makers and could deal with this team in the offseason if the opportunity arises. For now, you’re locked into a player who might be out, but without hacking. Robles, on the other hand, has secured himself an excellent financial protection that seemed impossible just a few weeks ago.
Yancen Pujols first reported that the two sides have agreed to a $9.75MM guaranteed extension (Spanish language link to X). ESPN’s Jorge Castillo had a two-year extension, a club option and $2MM in bonuses/escalators (X link). Daniel Kramer of MLB.com provided specific details on bonuses/escalators and the signing bonus (X link).
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