Peter Kettle | 11:52am BST 27 June 2024
Following his article on Dead Runs, responding to the critics, Peter Kettle gave four examples of how he assessed Don Bradman.
DEAD RUNNING EXAMPLE 1
BRADMAN – Aus vs West Indies
Melbourne, Feb 1931 (Fourth Test)
First Aus/WI series
WI 1st inns, 99 runs
Aus 1st inns, 328/8 dec (Bradman 152)
So the lead is 229
More places to stay in Aus 2nd: think, Minimum 250 runs
In this series, Aus are the second visitors: 172/0 and, on a sticky surface, 220.
Aus finished first with 376, 369, 558 and, on sticky ground, 224.
Kippax, McCabe, Ponsford and Woodfull did well (except Bradman)
WI 2nd inns target will be 479 runs.
Remote Possibility is placed at 370 (which is 109 less), representing a hypothetical 1 in 20 odds.
This means 1st safe inns in dec in Aus at 219 (instead of 328, less than 109).
Reason:
In this series, the highest WI for 2nd inns total is 249 (Headley only 11), all others are under 200;
And WIest 1st inns high is 350/6 (Headley 105) with wickets falling.
Previously, the final target of 370 dormitories had been met or exceeded in all tests only 3 times, the highest being 411 (all post-WW1).
Bradman was absent when Aus’ score was 286 with the team’s 67 Dead Runs piling up.
He scored twice as fast as his teammates, averaging 66:34.
So 66% of 67 Dead Runs attributed to Bradman = 44 (best average)
It is placed within the limits of 31 and 57 to him – showing some measurements of
it can be far from 350 or 390.
DEAD RUNNING EXAMPLE 2
BRADMAN – Aus vs South Africa
Adelaide, Jan 1932 (4th test)
SA 1St lodging houses, 308 run
Aus 1St Inns, 513 (Bradman 299*) – best of 205
Aus 2n.d Inns: think, Minimum 270 runs
In this series, only 2 Aus 6 inns are under 450, being 1St 198 innings (Bradman’s 2, his only failure) and, on a very sticky pitch, 153.
SA target 2n.d The dormitories will be 475 runs.
Remote Possibility starts at 390 (ie 85 less), 1 in 20 chance.
It means safety 1St housing dec in Aus at 428 (instead of 513).
Reason:
In this series, South Africa’s highest number of visitors is 358 (3rd Test), with a maximum value of 2n.d 274 and 225 bedrooms.
390 was surpassed only twice in all tests before that, the highest being 411 (both times after WW2).
Bradman was unbeaten at the end of Aus 1St dormitories where a team of 85 Dead Runs have been assembled.
He scored faster than his teammates, an average of 65:35.
So 65% of 85 Dead Runs are attributed to Bradman = 55 (best estimate).
Within the limits of 42 and 68 to him – which shows some estimates of remote possibilities starting at 370 and 410.
DEAD RUNNING EXAMPLE 3
BRADMAN – Aus vs England
Melbourne, Jan 1937 (3rd test)
Aus (200) lead England (76 on a “gluepot” pitch) by 124 runs for 1St inns.
Aus then saw tough conditions with the tail-enders and went on to amass 564 runs for 2.n.d dormitories, with Bradman (270) and Fingleton (136), both medium-sized, making up about three-quarters of them.
So Eng was set a massive target of 689 runs.
Remote Possibility is set at 440 runs (representing a 1 in 20 chance) – meaning a cut of 249 to Aus 2n.d lodges, by proclamation 315.
Reason:
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- England 2n.d the total number of lodges in this series did not exceed 330, but sent 426/6 to 2n.d Check out the original Lodges (double century Hammond).
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- The last highest innings before that was 411, England at Sydney in Dec 1924 (with two scores just past 100 and 2 just after 50).
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Bradman was out with a score of 549, so the dead team’s runs at that time had accumulated to 234.
He also outscored teammates at 65:35, giving him 152 Dead Runs.
Within the range of 139 to 165 Dead Runs with some distant estimates of 420 and 460 runs.
DEAD RUNNING EXAMPLE 4
BRADMAN – Aus vs England
Sydney, Dec 1946 (2n.d test)
Australia responded to England’s modest 1St 255 innings with a total of 659/8 dec – a lead of 404 runs. Barnes and Bradman each made 234.
England’s 2 Longest Chancesn.d 430 residencesgiven a 2n.d The inns total in this series is 371, 310/7 (high scores 112 and 53) and 340/8 dec (high scores 103 and 76). It represents a 1 in 20 chance.
The team’s score of 430 has been surpassed eight times in the last innings throughout Test history, and South Africa vs England in 1947 (423/7).
Aus 2n.d Dormitories are assumed to be, as a minimum, 230 – given 253 and 214/5 in the last Test of this series.
This means Aus 1 is safeSt Residences in dec 455, with a lead of 200. Bradman was out on 564 with the team’s Dead Runs then 109.
Bradman scored faster than Barnes, his all-time partner, at 60:40. So 60% is 109 gives Bradman’s Dead Runs, i.e. 65.
Other estimates are that it could happen at 410 or 450 (the latter being equaled/surpassed four times in Test history), meaning that Bradman’s Dead Runs are within the range of 53 and 77.
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