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One Man’s Trash: Hi, It’s me…Jo Adell

Click here. Now sing this:

Hello, it’s me. I was wondering if after all these years you would write to me. Putting the past aside. They say that time should heal it, but I haven’t done much to beat it. Hello, are you still here? I’m in Los Angeles of Anaheim of Alhambra of Artesia dreaming of who I should be. When I was young and full of energy. I have forgotten what it was like before the world of dreams threw me in the trash. There is a big difference between what I was and what I am now. Hello from the other side.

Jo Adell was the No. 10 pick by the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim out of Alhambra of Artesia back in 2017. At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, with explosive raw power, the hype had Flava Flav screaming YES BOYEEEEE! I STILL HAVE A JOB. But baseballs are tough. Hitting one? Probably one of the hardest things to do in all of professional sports. Adell was given four opportunities to prove himself in the majors, but was unable to stick each time. Is fifth time the charm?

In 59 plate appearances this season, Adell is hitting .321/.373/.623 with four home runs and five stolen bases. The walk rate is 5.1%, the strikeout rate is 23.7% and the ISO is .302. As Gray wrote in Monday’s recap, “Seven was Adell’s lucky number, as in seven records, as in post-post-post-post-post-post-hype sleeper and she’s finally out.”

Let’s dig in.

Early in his minor league career, his strikeout rate was in the low 20s while his walk rate ranged from 5 to 10 percent. The power was immediately apparent, however, as the ISO was in the .250 to .280 range.

When he got to the big lessons, the power couldn’t appear because he couldn’t communicate. In 2020, the strikeout rate increased to 41.7% in 132 plate appearances. The following season, Adell showed improvement, dropping his strikeout rate to 22.9% while posting a .162 ISO in 140 plate appearances. Did he get it and was he about to be Elon Musk’d into the stratosphere? As my Russian comrades say, Nyet !!!

In 2022, the strikeout rate increased to 37.5% in 285 plate appearances and then to 40.3% in 62 plate appearances the following season. At least the ISO was .241, the first time over .200 in the majors.

So, what has changed this season and is it sustainable?

The obvious number is BABIP, which is .361. During his minor league career, Adell maintained a high BABIP so that it was not out of the ordinary.

That Statcast data is very consistent with his career thus far. The output number is the bin level. At 12.5%, it is the first in double digits. That makes sense because you hit less, which means you make more contact, so it’s encouraging that your contact is high quality.

The linear driving rate is 35%, up from the 20% mark they were posting before. Fewer fly balls but fewer lows as well. His HR/FB rate is 33.3%, which would rank him second in the MLB if he is eligible. While that ability may not be strong, Adell has been posting high 20 percent marks before, so it’s not entirely out of the question.

If you look at the plate numbers, the strikeout rate remains the same, but you swing in a few pitches and the swing rate is down to 12.8%, from 17-18%. Communication rates have increased overall, with a large jump in the rate of communication outside the area.

Adell had a great year in 2021, slashing .246/.295/.408 with a 22.9% slugging percentage and .162 ISO in 140 plate appearances. A big key to the success was his success against four-line fastballs, hitting .261 and hitting just 20% against the pitch. For the rest of the season, he was hitting under .200 against the field and hitting over 40%. In 2024? He is hitting .250 against the four-seam fastball with a 13.3% strikeout rate. The sample size is itty bitty at 15 plate impressions, but it’s a good sign regardless.

Going into this effort, I was inclined to dismiss Adell’s fast start, but the more I dig, the more I’m kind of buying into it. The sample size is small, and the pitchers will adjust, but I feel that Adell is more comfortable now after four years of trials and tribulations. The power has been real and he’s at 91 percent with speed, and those power/speed guys are hard to pass up. I think what appeals to me the most is his patient approach and ability to change his swing to pitches outside the zone.


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