One Man’s Trash: Sterling Vierling or Trifling?

I’ve always been fascinated by garage sales, Storage Wars, and Antique Roadshows. They all have stories of people finding wealth in what many think is trash. Some may be out in the open while others are buried under something. A little cleaning and digging sometimes makes it all worth it, although the odds are low that winning lottery tickets are available. That doesn’t mean there aren’t useful things. This explains the ropes of the fictional baseball. The league winners do show up from time to time, but it’s usually filled with trash and hot schmotatoes that Gray ends up eating for breakfast. There are also strong players who just give a little something, nothing more, nothing less. They don’t get Tony the Tiger to shout “Grreeeaaaaatttt“, but statistics are statistics. Matt Vierling for the Detroit Tigers has been hot over the past 10 games, hitting .324/.385/.647 with two home runs and eight RBI. Ranked in 2% of ESPN leagues and 10% of NFBC leagues. Is there anything funny about this Vierling?
Vierling is 27 years old, 6-foot-3, 205 pounds, and bats from right. He was selected in the fifth round of the 2018 MLB draft by the Philadelphia Phillies.
Throughout his minor league career, his strikeout rate never exceeded 20%. He didn’t go early, but he improved from 5.7% to over 10%. ISO was all over the place, from .097 to .299. He never hit double-digit home runs and stole 22 bases in 483 plate appearances at Single-A. He only spent three years in the minors before being fired up in the MLB.
With the Phillies in 2021, he made 77 plate appearances and hit two home runs while stealing two bases. The walk rate was 5.2% and the strikeout rate was 26%. The ISO was .155 but the BABIP was .420, leading to a .324 batting average. In 2022, he made 357 plate appearances and hit six home runs while stealing seven bases. The walk rate is up to 6.4% and the strikeout rate is down to 19.6%. ISO was only .105, though.
Vierling was traded to Detroit in 2023 and hit 10 home runs with six stolen bases in 530 plate appearances with the Tigers. The walk rate was 8.3% and the strikeout rate was 21.1%. The ISO was .127.
I mentioned his 10 game heater in the introduction, but Vierling’s season stats look good this season. In 161 plate appearances, he hit five home runs with 23 RBI. The walk rate is only 4.3% and the strikeout rate is 21.7%. ISO is a robust .185. BABIP is .327 and he is hitting .278/.311/.464.
Let’s dig deeper and see what has changed and whether things are sustainable.
The Statcast numbers look promising. His average exit velocity of 92.2 mph is a career high. Although the maxEV is low for work, the launch angle of 16.2 and barrel rate of 6.8% is high for work.
That batted ball data shows you hit fewer ground balls and more fly balls. The GB/FB of .8 is a career-low in the majors and the first time under 1. There has been a change in approach, as he is now shooting 39% of the ball. Last season, he was at 33.9% while in the 30% range the previous two times in the majors.
The plate alignment numbers are excellent. His strikeout rate is 7.3% and he has never hit double digits. The local connection rate is 89.7% and the overall connection rate is 83.5%. He was very aggressive swinging at pitches in the strike zone while chasing a few pitches. His 22.9% Swing% is a career low and would rank him as the ninth best mark in baseball.
To start the season, Vierling was not always starting and was always batting sixth or seventh in the lineup. He hit lead off a lot as well, but was often used against left-handed pitching. However, playing time became more frequent and he was given more plate appearances against right-handed pitching, hitting everywhere in the top and middle of the lineup, never lower than fifth. In 102 plate appearances against the righties, Vierling is hitting .253 with four home runs, five walks, and 14 RBI. He has hit 24 times. In the latest game, Vierling hit two home runs, both to the outside of right.
I like what I see with Vierling. The plate discipline is really good and has pop. While he hasn’t stolen a base yet this season, he’s in the 89th percentile in hit speed, so I’m not overly suspicious that they’ll come. You are given a chance to play and you hit the top half of the list. He also has dual aptitude at 3B and OF. And you’re free!
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