Rockies Don’t Buy To Move Ryan McMahon

The Rockies have the second-worst record in the National League and will once again enter the postseason without a chance to compete for a playoff spot. Colorado was reluctant to move players last summer even when they looked like clear cut sellers at the deadline.
It remains to be seen how general manager Bill Schmidt and his front office will approach it in the coming months, but it doesn’t appear that they are eager to deal with their top player. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeted this morning that the Rockies might do it Ryan McMahon available. Of course they will get calls from other clubs asking about the possibility; Morosi reports that the Blue Jays are one of the teams that are showing interest in this third baseman.
As part of a student post bag, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post also suggests that he doesn’t expect the Rockies to deal McMahon. Saunders is a floating second baseman Brendan Rodgers and the holders Elias Díaz again Jacob Stallings as realistic possibilities. The returns for any of those players would be small, however. Colorado would want a better prospect package for McMahon than any of Díaz, Stallings or Rodgers.
Of course, that’s a testament to McMahon’s talent and a great start to the 2024 campaign. In 234 plate appearances, he hit .286/.366/.483 with a team-leading 10 home runs. McMahon is on pace for personal best marks in all three slash stats. He ranks in the top 10 among professional hitters in hard contact rate, exceeding an exit velocity of 95 MPH on a whopping 55.2% of batted balls. McMahon is drawing walks at a career-high 11.5% rate and has reduced his hitting percentage by six points compared to last season. While he still hits at an above-average clip (25.6%), this swing-and-miss rate is more than reasonable for a player of his strength and plate behavior.
Even after accounting for Coors Field, McMahon was produced as an average bat. His defensive grades in 467 innings this season are roughly average, but he has been one of the top three defensive players in the game during his career. McMahon has been a solid fixture since 2021 and is playing at an All-Star level this season.
That arguably makes this the perfect opportunity for the Rockies to move him. He is in the middle of a working year at the age of 29. Colorado has no playoff prospects this season; It’s hard to see a way to end the Wild Card race next year. Rox likely won’t have a meaningful postseason opportunity until his age-31 season at the earliest. It is impossible for McMahon to be as important a business figure then as he is now. Even if he maintains this increasing level of performance, he will be deep into the partially backloaded six-year extension he signed in Spring Training 2022.
McMahon has three and a half more seasons under his contract. He is playing this season and next for $12MM in salary and will make $16MM per year in 2026-27. He can play his way into a breakout opportunity, but that requires a top-five finish in the MVP voting which seems unlikely even with his current production.
Three more seasons makes it unsurprising that the Rox seem reluctant to deal with McMahon, even if this summer could be a big selling window. Colorado is holding on Trevor’s story again John Gray while they were free agents a few seasons ago; they do the same with Brent Suter Last summer. They added other potential trade candidates such as Díaz, Antonio Senzatela again Kyle Freeland in recent years. The Rockies are staunchly resistant to taking trades for what they consider to be less than a player’s value, even if it means losing them in free agency sooner rather than later. That strategy has often not brought good results, but the Rox can rightly attribute their past ineffectiveness to recruiting and holding on to a key player they signed for another three years.
Díaz, Stallings and Rodgers will be the least important omissions. The veteran fishing tandem has produced well, but each is a future free agent in his mid-30s. Rodgers is under arbitration control until 2025. The #3 first round pick never developed into the level of player the Rockies expected. He is hitting .266/.308/.342 with just one homer in 50 games this season; it is out of the question that he does not issue tenders next winter.
As for the Jays, they make sense for offensive help even if the Rockies don’t want to move McMahon outright. The Jays entered the season with questions at third and second base. Download of the season Isiah Kiner-Falefa he did a good job at the hot corner, hitting .269/.315/.410 in 169 plate appearances. He can play anywhere, so the Jays could move him around the diamond if they add third base help. Using Kiner-Falefa more often at second base can be a push Davis Schneider with more confidence in left field and allow the Jays to get to the playing time of the struggle George Springer.
Toronto is in last place in the AL East at 25-29, but they likely won’t focus on trades until absolutely necessary. The Jays have a veteran-laden roster seeking a third straight playoff berth and their fourth trip in five years.
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