New research shows that golf is the most difficult professional sport to predict a winner, compared to other sports over the past 20 years, including tennis, snooker, badminton and squash.
The results found that from 2004-2024, major golf championship winners were more likely to have a lower world ranking (WR), compared to champions in each of the other sports.
The average world ranking of golf winners was 18, the lowest of all the sports surveyed.
Tennis served as the next most unpredictable sport, as results analyzed at the same time found that winners of major tennis tournaments had an average world ranking of 10, a difference of 8 points compared to golf.
Snooker champions are also ranked at least 10th in the world or below, when they win one of the biggest tournaments on the circuit, while badminton or squash have come in much more predictably – with winners averaging 4th or 3rd in the world. respectively.
Public sentiment towards golf compared to other sports was also analysed, with golf emerging as the least predictable sport when it comes to consistent play and viewing.
More than a third (39%) say golf is the sport they consider the most unpredictable – more than double the number of the next sport, football (19%) and four times the number of the next sport, tennis (9%).
Similarly, golf fans are the least confident when it comes to predicting the correct winner – with a confidence level 10% lower than that of tennis fans, and 30% less than Formula 1 fans.
In addition, golfers reported less consistency in their performance compared to participants in all other sports tested – and scored 10% lower than the next sport, tennis.
The Open
Over the past 20 years, The Open has shown greater variation and greater distance in scoring compared to other major three-man tournaments. Here, the lowest score was -20 in 2022 and the highest was +3 in 2008.
Furthermore, when examining scores from the top 25 men’s top finishers over the past five years, the variance and range in each player’s four rounds was the highest at The Open. Here, the average difference between a player’s best and worst rounds at The Open is six shots.
Fans were also reported to find the Open more difficult to predict than other individual and team sports.
When asked who will win at Troon this July, 29 different names were suggested, while in contrast, only 11 names were proposed for Wimbledon and seven for the next season of Formula 1.
Colin Montgomerie, who won 54 titles, but failed to win a major championship, said: “You can be the best in the world in this game and never know what’s around the corner. As a player, it’s about playing those averages sometimes – how you react to the bad and the bad, that can be the difference between winning or losing.
“That’s what makes the game so exciting, watching it and playing it – it’s not always a straight line, but that’s what always brings you back. As a local from Troon, I know all too well how these lowlands and windy coasts can affect a script – I can’t wait to see what happens this week!”
Jonathan Castleman, Managing Director, Global Head of Brand and Brand Partnerships at HSBC, who carried out the research and statistical analysis, said: “Sports and golf are full of unpredictable changes and often resonate with life which is why we love them so much. as followers.
“It’s all about the next shot we take – and just like a golfer needs a caddy and a support team, we all need that support network to help us see the corners of life and reach our ultimate goals.”
The 152nd Open will be held from July 18-21 at Royal Troon, where HSBC will continue as Patron of The Open, since 2011.
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