Tampa Bay Lightning Can Trust Brandon Hagel to Drive His Own Line This Season – Hockey Writers – Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning’s top-six forward core is shaping up to be one of the best in the 2024-25 season. Despite losing Steven Stamkos, the Lightning found a better option in Jake Guentzel on the wing. With the addition of Guentzel, the Lightning have created one of the best lines in hockey. The trio also includes two stars, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov.

Related: Revisiting the Lightning’s Blockbuster Trade by Blake Coleman

If you go over the top line, many will argue that the Lightning’s depth is too weak. However, one name that has been overlooked is 25-year-old Brandon Hagel. When general manager Julien BriseBois brought the young player to Tampa Bay, analysts picked the Chicago Blackhawks winners of the deal. Two seasons later, the Lightning ended up with the best trade asset. Hagel had the best season of his career in 2023-24 and signed an extension with the Lightning for the next eight years at an average annual salary of $6.5 million. With all the offensive tackles on the first line, can Hagel drive the second line himself? Let’s turn to the numbers to find out.

Hagel’s Best Production

An all-star player in the National Hockey League has many qualities. Some include offensive production in all situations, driving 5-on-5 play, or strong play on all three offense. Fortunately for lightning, Hagel has all of these traits in his game.

First, he ranked 30th in points in all situations among forwards last season. If we change the situation to 5-on-5, where scoring is more difficult, Hagel rises even higher. His 48 5-on-5 points finished tied for 13th among all NHL forwards last season. The best part about his 5-on-5 production is his primary to secondary assist ratio. Often referred to as the team’s second scoring unit, one would expect most of Hagel’s points to include key assists, especially spending time with Point and Kucherov. However, Hagel recorded 23 primary assists at 5-on-5 (tied for 7th) compared to nine secondary assists, proving that he was more important to Tampa Bay’s offense than the public eye believed.

Refutation of the “Hold by Kucherov” Theory.

While players can post insane point totals, their on-ice metrics can keep them from being top-tier players. How did Hagel play last season? Using Natural Stat Trick’s on-ice player stats page, we can look at a number of driving stats to answer this question. Of all Lightning players who played more than 250 minutes at 5-on-5, Hagel led the team in expected field goal percentage (xGF%) at 53.87%. In addition, he ranks in the top two in field goal percentage (SCF%) and Corsi high risk percentage (HDCF%).

Fans will be quick to point out that Hagel shared more than 400 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time with the league’s leading scorer last season, boosting his on-ice metrics. However, NaturalStatTrick’s linear tool adds a new layer of context to extract Kucherov’s theory from carrying Hagel. While Kucherov and Hagel get along better on the ice together,​​​​these two players do the same without each other. In Kucherov’s minutes, lightning played at high speed. On the other hand, Hagel’s minutes were low-event hockey against the top units of opponents in the league. Kucherov and Hagel finished around the 50% mark in expected goals percentage, scoring chances percentage, and Corsi the most dangerous percentage outside of each other at 5-on-5. In short, Hagel doesn’t need superstar talent around him to impact the game. One might find his ability to change the game in different ways more impressive than a pure goalscorer.

Hagel Deserves Selke Recognition For His Defensive Efforts

To complement his strong production and drive to play, Hagel is a beast on the defensive side of the puck. He still managed to post a 75-point season with his superior defensive play. If Hagel gives up one of his defensive plays on offense, he could be within a point per game range. When Hagel is on the ice, the Lightning are allowing expected goals at a rate eight percent better than the league average this season, according to Hockey Viz. In addition, you send these defensive effects against the best offensive weapons. His middle man Anthony Cirelli also fills this second line shutdown mold like a glove. Hagel and Cirelli also form a penalty-killing unit and defense together under head coach Jon Cooper. Hagel posted good enough defensive results in the Selke debate last season, and his defensive game continues to fly completely under the radar.

Swiss Army Knife Forward Has Zero Flaws

After the relevant analysis, we can conclude that the lightning winger has no flaws in his game. Hagel is a Swiss army knife player who can do it all. He can go out there and score a goal, make a pass, block a shot, kill a penalty, and even drop the gloves. His energetic style of play brings stability to this dynamic Lightning roster in recent years. After following up his 30-goal, 64-point campaign over the past two seasons with 75 points and a dominant two-point streak last season, Hagel is part of the conversation as one of the top left tackles in the NHL. While Tampa Bay has a weak bottom-six heading into next season, count on Hagel to drive the Lightning’s strong second line and continue to improve.