The Astros Finally Released José Abreu

After a year of hoping for a triumphant return from José Abreu’s salad days, the Astros released the veteran first baseman on Friday, ending his disappointing performance in Houston. It would be an understatement to say that the 37-year-old Abreu has struggled this season; across 35 games, he hit .124/.167/.195 with two home runs, a wRC+ of 2 and an MPI that I won’t repeat because the kids might learn. The Astros still owe Abreu a hair less than $31 million on the three-year deal he signed shortly after the 2022 season, or they’ll be on the hook for less if another team signs him for the league-record deal.

If David Ortiz’s last great season represents the ideal scenario for a beloved veteran to reach retirement, then Abreu’s time with the Astros exemplifies the other extreme ends of the spectrum. During nine years with the White Sox, from 2014-22, Abreu was one of the most consistent sluggers in baseball, hitting .292/.354/.506 with 243 home runs, a 133 wRC+, and 28.3 WAR. He had five 30-homer seasons, and that doesn’t include the shortened 2020 campaign, when he hit 19 long balls, a season-high 51, en route to winning the AL MVP award. With Chicago, he also earned AL Rookie of the Year honors (2014), made three All-Star teams (’14,’18, ’19), and won three Silver Sluggers (’14, ’18, ‘ 20). When he became a free agent after his age-35 season and the White Sox didn’t show much interest in bringing him back, Abreu quickly signed with the Astros, who had won the World Series a few weeks earlier.

It seemed like the perfect place for his three-year autumn epilogue. Houston didn’t expect to make the roster; instead, his role would be to bolster first base and/or designated hitter for a few years and support stars like Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. With the Astros coming off a 106-win season and a World Series championship, with many of their key players returning, it appeared that his new team would give Abreu a better chance to win a ring than he clearly would have. fading White Sox. To get an idea of ​​what Abreu expected when he signed with Houston, let’s take a look at his three-year ZiPS projections heading into the 2023 season:

While ZiPS was skeptical that Abreu would be an everyday starter for all three years in Houston, it widely thought he would be a good enough average option for a year or two. Abreu got off to a rough start last year, hitting .214/.262/.253 without a home run through May 14 while starting 39 of the team’s first 40 games. As I wrote last April, there was not even a hint that his struggles were lucky; his plate discipline had deteriorated and his power had evaporated like a lake after a July thunderstorm in Texas.

There are some very concerning issues in Abreu’s first-season profile this year that weren’t present in other early starts. If he struggles, he still hits the ball hard. This year, his exit velocity averaged 86.6 mph with a 36.7% strikeout rate – very low numbers for him. He was lousy last April, hitting .217/.308/.348, but he was still crushing the pitches he connected with, resulting in a 94.6 mph EV average and a 59.6% slugging rate. He struggled again in April 2021, hitting .213/.296/.394, but with a 92.1 mph EV and a 53.7% hard-hit rate – not as good as 2022, but a world better than where those numbers currently stand. He got off to a good start in 2018 and ’19, so they’re not helping, and he hit the ball in August of 2020 (I didn’t include any 2020 seasons in April’s numbers, as the year was pretty impressive).

Abreu played somewhat better throughout the 2023 campaign, hitting .246/.309/.435 with 18 homers across 102 games and capped things off with four homers in the postseason. Rather than taking Abreu’s early season woes as a warning that the end was near, the Astros continued to do very little to pick up another bat during the offseason; their biggest move to add boom to the roster came when they acquired Trey Cabbage from the Los Angeles Angels. Given Houston’s ALCS elimination at the hands of their in-state rivals, the Texas Rangers, and their weakest 90-72 record since 2016, it’s hard to guess why the Astros took such a casual approach to the potential issue. . Whether it has anything to do with the front office overhaul after James Click left is a topic for another day.

This season has gotten off to a rough start for Abreu. He hit .111/.161/.123 with no homers, for an OPS (.284) that was even lower than the career OPS of Hall of Fame pitcher/hitter Randy Johnson (.305). His exit velocity numbers looked similar to last April, and he failed to hit a single batter. Things were so bad that Abreu agreed to be picked in the minors to get stuff, which led to the strange sight of the former MVP starting to talk to the minors at age 37; he headed to the majors 10 years ago after the White Sox signed him as an international free agent out of Cuba, and he didn’t even play in the minors on an injury rehab assignment. Abreu returned to Houston after playing rookie ball and a few games with Triple-A Sugar Land, hitting two home runs this month. But the writing was on the wall, and with the Mariners finally putting space between themselves and the rest of the AL West, the Astros clearly couldn’t afford to wait indefinitely for another revival that might never come.

In the short term, Jon Singleton will likely continue to get the majority of playing time at first base with Abreu out of the picture, but to say that Singleton is improving the team is insulting with little praise; while it’s cool to see him back in the majors after a decade away, he’s not exactly a productive big leaguer. Singleton turns 33 later this year and is a .183/.294/.322 hitter in the majors, with projections ranging from negative (.214/.327/.388 in the Steamer, .215/.324/. 376 in ZiPS) to even worse (THE BAT at .193/.289/.343). Rookie Joey Loperfido would seem like the obvious infield solution to replace Abreu, but he’s been an outfielder thus far and the organization hasn’t given him much of a start in Triple-A, which seems counterintuitive. that the Astros will give him the next chance at work. Big improvements here would require big trades, and I’m frankly not sure that the decision makers in Houston right now are equipped to move quickly and smartly.

What’s next for Abreu? While the natural inclination would be to go back to the White Sox, I think that would be a bad idea. Mal Tiempo it no longer brings bad weather to opposing pitchers, and I can’t help but feel that all the good that he will be remembered for in Chicago has passed. The Sox need to use their losing season in a more productive way than a farewell tour for Abreu, and the Pale Hose bench won’t get Abreu one last time in the playoffs. Maybe the Dodgers will sign him in July and he’ll hit .700 in 100 at-bats in a part-time role, because they’re the Dodgers.

A fun player for a long time and a great leader for his team and city, Abreu will likely fall short of the Hall of Fame, perhaps even get off the ballot after his first year of eligibility. It would be shocking if he adds more to his career 263 homers or 26.3 WAR (which is actually two fewer wins than when he left the White Sox), and we have yet to see Hall of Fame voters credit the outfield game. get a borderline player up. Ichiro Suzuki will easily make the Hall of Fame when he gets on the ballot in the upcoming election, but that would be even if he never played in Japan. I wrote a bit about the possibility of adding Abreu’s time in Cuba to test his Hall of Fame case back in 2021, but that was more of a theatrics than a big expectation that he would get votes.

No, Abreu isn’t pitching at his best, but the brutality of time in baseball isn’t that different from life. At some point, we will all lose our ability to do the things we are good at, the things we love, and eventually, anything at all. It’s just that as a footballer, his transformation comes at a very young age under public scrutiny. I’ve always been a fan of Orson Welles’ quote on this subject, and one I’ve said I’d like to have in my final epitaph: “If you want a happy ending, that depends, of course, on where you set your story.” If this is the sad final chapter in the story of Abreu’s baseball career, it was still a great volume to read.