This week on Meatballs, Whomps per Whiff, and some New Stats

Hello there, and welcome to a section that I hope to turn into a regular feature. Last week, I started taking a closer look at the individual event rate predictions built into our pitch measurement model, PitchingBot. I did some extensive research on the types of pitches that are most likely to hit home runs and looked at which pitchers threw them the most. I gathered some information about those areas (fastballs, bad hits, hitters but not 3-0), and tried to figure out what that meant for home run rate.

Obviously, it’s fun to watch these badass places, and I’m glad to see how few of them lead to being home. 50 potential home run pitches yielded a combined 1 homer. The top 100 hit only three homers, while the bottom 100 hit six. There are many variations, but at its core, baseball is still a game of failure – even if the pitcher does the worst thing they can do, the hitters usually don’t punish them.

To that end, I’m going to try a new weekly compilation: various meatball-related items that show who’s been active in one way or another in the past week. Given that it’s usually a list of things without a ton of analysis needed, I’ll start by trying to add it on top of my regular schedule, and I’ll use this to update some of my favorite junk stats (whomps per whiff, Kimbrels, etc.). If it’s popular, great! If not, hey, it’s a long baseball season and you have to keep trying things. Anyway, let’s continue.

Meatball of the Week

We have to stop meeting like this, Randy. When I crowned one meatballer of the year last week, Randy Arozarena was the hitter who got the most broken offering, and he took it. This week, he hacked Beau Brieske’s 3-1 offering, but he was able to finish it.

A quick check on why the model thought the pitch was so prominent: a combination of count, speed, location, and shape. Brieske’s fastball is slightly better than average, but this one wasn’t. For whatever reason — maybe he was aiming it thanks to the count, maybe he didn’t play his pitch — it was 3.5 mph slower than his normal fastball. It arrived in time for the hitter’s count and was thrown into the batter’s box without any strange or surprising circumstances. That’s a recipe for a crushing pitch, even if Arozarena can’t do anything about it.

Italian Grandma’s Award for Most Meatballs Served

Valente Bellozo, Miami Marlins

This category is simple: Every week, the Italian Grandmother Award goes to the player who has thrown the most meatballs in the last seven days. Valente Bellozo will be a regular contender for this honor because he throws a fastball that tops out in the low 90s and averages 89.7 mph. He throws that fastball a lot, and gets through contact because of his good command. However, most of his fastballs also look like this:

Bellozo was very good in his rookie year; in six starts, he has a 2.45 ERA and a 3.53 FIP. But the good times probably won’t last. He just finished posting a 5.87 FIP in Triple-A while allowing 1.82 homers per nine innings. He gave up three warning track blasts to plate and a homer this week while striking out eight in two starts. The Marlins are desperate to hit right now and Bellozo is hitting, so I’m sure he’ll get tons of ropes. But if you’re looking for a pitcher who might have a real breakout start, he’d be my pick right now.

A Multi-Layered Healthy Food Award Beyond the Meatball

Pablo López, Minnesota Twins

There’s really nothing to see here. Pablo López made two starts and didn’t throw a single pitch that PitchingBot thought had a 3% chance of turning into a home run. He gave it up, but it was to Bobby Witt Jr., and sometimes you just get star struck. Honorable mention to Logan Webb, who made one start last week (104 pitches) and continued to harass hitters. He will appear later in the season-long update; for now, let’s just say Webb doesn’t make many mistakes.

Now, a little research to further explain why I look at these places. First, this week’s meatballs are crushed. There have been 502 pitches over the 3% homer limit, and batters have hit 21 home runs against them, 4.2% of the time. The model would have predicted 18 homers, so we’re a little hot. Pretty much any way you slice it, this week’s home team outplayed their meatball chances, which may be as much a product of the season as anything else. I will look into that as the season progresses.

It seems pretty clear that meatball rankings don’t correlate very well with single game results. Bellozo was good in his two starts last week despite catching 80 fastballs there. George Kirby didn’t throw a single pitch that the model classified as a meatball, and he gave up four homers and eight earned runs.

Season long meatball standings

Among pitchers who have thrown 1,000 total pitches in the majors this year, Joey Estes stands alone with 80 meatballs in just 1,369 pitches, a 5.8% average. Webb is on the other end of the spectrum with only five meatballs in 2,543 pitches, and believe it or not, Blake Snell is second with only three meatballs in 1,188 pitches. Snell is more of a walk-on guy than a home run guy, so even with his rough start to the season, he’s only giving up 0.71 home runs per nine innings.

Whomps per Whiff Leaders

This figure does an excellent job of highlighting the great hitters, those who combine power with a deep sense of the strike zone. It also has direct effects; you can’t get in the lineup without hitting a ton of balls, and if you hit a ton of barrels, you’re probably hitting hard. So, yes, this list is made up of all the great hitters who had great seasons by one person:

Stephenson wasn’t a disaster or anything, he’s just not on anyone else’s level. Overall, sending high whomps with each hit means you are a good hitter. Here is the entire leaderboard for you to read.

Kimbrels leaderboard

Kimbrel is a prospect with a negative FIP; in other words, an appearance in which a pitcher strikes out at least 1.5 batters per inning without allowing any walks, HBPs, or home runs. It’s pretty close to just being a list of good reproducers, but the top three are amazing:

Like WPW, the Kimbrels pretty much tell you what you already know: These pitchers are great. Mason Miller is obviously there. Emmanuel Clase is not far from the top ten, and the figure sells below Clase because he allows very weak connections. Here’s the whole list if you want to browse it.

This week on meatballs, whomps per whiff, and Kimbrels. I hope you enjoyed this solid, GIF-heavy, and information-dense compilation of the weirdest baseball stats I’ve looked up.