Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be kicking off your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
It’s not uncommon for league champions to struggle the following year. The most extreme form of this is the Marlins, who sold almost all of their best players after winning the World Series in 1997 and 2003. The Nationals, who haven’t had a winning season since their World Series title in 2019. , are a recent example. But, usually, at least one of the two teams to play in the previous World Series has a strong postseason. In fact, in the first 29 seasons of the Wild Card Era, only twice did the league champions from the same year miss out on the next season; Interestingly, those two years were back to back, in 2006 (White Sox and Astros) and 2007 (Cardinals and Tigers). That’s why it’s so scary to see both the Rangers and Diamondbacks are under .500 entering play this weekend.
Although both teams won on Thursday, they are not in good shape right now. The Diamondbacks are 8.5 games out of first place with a 33-36 record (albeit just one game out of the last NL Wild Card spot); The Rangers’ 33-35 record is five games back of the first place Mariners and 3.5 games away from the wild card. A sluggish start gave the reigning world champions a 19.2% chance going into Thursday; Arizona’s odds weren’t much better, at 27.9%.
With this in mind, let’s look at what went wrong for each team and decide how to avoid becoming two new league champions in three decades so that each team misses out on returning to the postseason in their next campaigns.
The guards
The injury bug has bitten the Rangers badly: Max Scherzer had back surgery in December and is back with nerve damage (though he should be back soon), along with fellow starters Cody Bradford, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, and Michael Lorenzen. they all missed time in various places this year. (Not to mention Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle, who will be out for most of the season as they recover from Tommy John surgery.)
Meanwhile, in the starting lineup, third baseman Josh Jung missed all but four games with a broken wrist, first baseman Nathaniel Lowe opened the season in the IL with an oblique strain, and shortstop Corey Seager played in just three spring training games. he had surgery in January to repair a sports hernia, and though he returned on Opening Day, he struggled through April as he got back into the swing of things. Top prospect Wyatt Langford was out in May with a hamstring strain, and left forward Evan Carter, their no. 2 prospect and the breakout star of the last postseason, is currently on the shelf with a lumbar sprain. So, yes, for those keeping score at home, that adds seven starting pitchers and five key pieces to the lineup.
Unlike last year, when they acquired Jordan Montgomery, Scherzer, Aroldis Chapman, Chris Stratton, and Austin Hedges before the deadline, I don’t see a trade package coming to the Rangers this July. That previous trade dried up the pipeline of promising young players they could work with this year, especially because their top prospect who hasn’t reached the majors, 18-year-old shortstop Sebastian Walcott, is unlikely to be affected.
The good news is that, with the exception of high-end weapons, rental equipment is usually cheap at the deadline. That bodes well for Rangers because they already have strong guys at the top level; instead, they need decent middle relievers to bridge the gap from starters to David Robertson and Kirby Yates. They also have José Leclerc, but he has been strangely inconsistent this year. Pairing Chapman might make sense (though he’s more versatile than Leclerc), but Texas would be better off targeting a quality pitcher like Matt Moore, Luis García, Scott Alexander, or Dylan Floro. Being able to fire someone like Dane Dunning and/or Andrew Heaney into the bullpen when Scherzer and Mahle return should help there as well.
I doubt the Rangers will do much with their offense other than maybe a bench move or two. Right now they have the right pieces on their roster, even if everyone but Seager and Marcus Semien are underperforming.
Diamondbacks
On the other side of the recent World Series, Arizona’s offseason has looked like a mixed bag at best and disaster at worst. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (94 wRC+) has been almost the same guy as last year (106 wRC+) with improved defense, and the Joc Pederson (153 wRC+)/Randal Grichuk (137 wRC+) DH platoon has been excellent. But some additions have been bad. Third baseman Eugenio Suárez (66 wRC+) is having the worst season of his career, Jordan Montgomery (6.58 ERA/4.76 FIP) has had one of the worst starts in the league, and Eduardo Rodriguez has been sidelined with a shoulder injury. injury.
In addition, the Diamondbacks’ two most important hitters, last season’s NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll and catcher Gabriel Moreno, are out, and two of their top starters, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, are out with injuries.
The Diamondbacks are in dire straits; they clearly need to improve their system, but it is not clear what areas they should prioritize. Three of the injured starters are injured, but Gallen could be back before the end of the month, Kelly possibly before the All-Star break, and Rodriguez not long after Kelly. All of that is just a lock on their rotation because Montgomery and Brandon Pfadt aren’t going anywhere. Moreno and Carroll are clearly irreplaceable, and if Jordan Lawlar pushes Geraldo Perdomo from shortstop, it will likely drop Perdomo to third.
Like the Rangers, Arizona’s bullpen is primed for higher pitches, with Paul Sewald and Justin Martinez pitching well, but the team’s bullpen needs more depth. The names listed above in Texas would also make sense to Snakes. If not, the easiest way to improve the system would actually be to make tough decisions: cut Suárez, make Blaze Alexander and Jake McCarthy premier bench players, and completely go in for a third baseman or corner outfielder who can transform the offense. The Diamondbacks may not want to go that far, but now might be a good time to strike because they have a deep farm system to trade for. They will come at a low price, but imagine how someone like Taylor Ward, Brent Rooker, or Ryan McMahon could reshape Arizona’s program.
In the end, neither team is likely to feel the juice of big additions is worth the squeeze, and I’d be especially surprised if the Rangers did anything significant. But as both teams showed last year, all they need to do is make the playoffs to make a run at the World Series — and avoid joining that group of dubious clubs.
Source link
