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Yusei Kikuchi’s Curveball One Year Celebration (New).

Few pitchers have had as up-and-down a career in the majors as he has Yusei Kikuchi. The former Seibu Lions player jumped from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball in the 2018-19 offseason when he signed a four-year, $56MM contract with the Mariners. That deal contained a series of complicated options that allowed the Mariners to pick up three more years of Kikuchi’s control — that decision comes after the third year of the contract — but also allowed the left-hander the option to opt out after those three. -annual option is declined.

For most of Kikuchi’s time in Seattle, the four-year guarantee seemed regrettable. Kikuchi made 32 starts in his rookie season but posted an ERA north of 5.00 with a low 16.1% strikeout rate and velocity inconsistent with what he had previously shown in Japan. The 2022 season brought some signs of encouragement, as the southpaw’s fastball average jumped 2.5 mph (from 92.6 mph to 95.1 mph). Kikuchi has seen a 50% increase in his strikeout rate, rising from an abysmal 16.1% to an over-average 24.2%. But his walk rate rebounded to around 11%, and he eventually posted a second straight ERA north of 5.00.

From the beginning of 2021, Kikuchi’s results changed for the better. He retained last season’s velocity and strikeout gains but did so while improving his command. Through 11 starts through the first half of the 2021 season, Kikuchi has been one of the most successful pitchers in baseball: 69 2/3 innings, 2.33 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, 58% ground-ball rate . Kikuchi was eligible for an All-Star for the first time and was playing so well midway through the season that I wrote about how he had begun to question whether he should use the quartet of $16.5MM options he should consider. Four more years and $66MM would bring Seattle’s total commitment to the lefty to seven years and $109MM in total.

Kikuchi ended up making the easy call to the Mariners – though not in the way he and the team had hoped. From July 5 to the end of the season in 2021, the pendulum swung in his direction. He rocked a 6.22 ERA as his walk rate hovered above 10% and he struggled to hit home runs. As the line may be, 2021 was a true legend of two seasons for Kikuchi. An outstanding, All-Star-caliber first half followed by a disastrous second half in which he had the seventh-worst ERA of any pitcher with at least 60 innings.

The Mariners surprisingly chose not to pick up their four-year, $66MM option on Kikuchi. While it initially looked like Kikuchi would exercise his $13MM player option, he surprised some observers by turning down that guaranteed amount and going back on the market. There were many critics at the time of his decision, but his three-year, $36MM deal with the Blue Jays proved that he would be the best in the game.

Kikuchi’s time in Toronto paralleled his run with the Mariners. A disappointing first campaign cost him his spot in the rotation at one point and he finished the year with a 5.19 ERA in 100 2/3 innings. As of 2023, he wasn’t even guaranteed a spot in the rotation. And in his 11th start of the season, Kikuchi was once again doing his usual highwire act. His 4.47 ERA was passable, but the lefty was averaging 2.4 homers in nine frames and a 21.5% strikeout rate.

On June 4, something interesting happened. Kikuchi threw a curveball. An incredible statement in itself, but it was the first time Kikuchi had thrown a hook since his rookie season in Seattle. Scouting reports on Kikuchi during his first stateside stint praised his curveball as one of his top games, in fact. But the big leaguers simply faded away against the pitch in 2019, posting a .353/.371/.632 slash against the suddenly ineffective curveball.

Kikuchi completely dropped the pitch in the 2020-22 seasons and had yet to throw an 11-inning season in ’23. For the rest of the season, just under 13% of Kikuchi’s pitches were curveballs, according to Sports Info Solutions. This, however, was not the same curveball he showed in that rookie season. Kikuchi’s 2019 hook averaged just over 75 mph, featuring a whopping 63.7 inches of vertical break and 6.9 inches of horizontal break, per Statcast.

The new breaker is a strong, sharp curveball that sits at 83 mph with 43.5 inches of vertical break and 4.4 inches of horizontal break. The venerable Rob Friedman – aka Pitching Ninja – has highlighted the offering several times since last June. Compare that to this old curveball video of Kikuchi, and you can see it’s a completely different tone. The new curve wasn’t a dominant pitch last year — opponents hit .277/.306/.447 in plate appearances that ended with the curveball — but the change in repertoire seems to have helped keep hitters off balance and made his other pitches more effective.

The 2024 season was another story. Kikuchi fully embraced the new curveball by throwing it at a 28% clip, and hitters couldn’t do any damage against the pitch. Opponents hit .258/.290/.318 in 69 plate appearances that ended in a curve, and only four of their hits were doubles. About 53% of the curveballs hit against Kikuchi were low. This has helped alleviate his long-standing struggles against right-handers, and Statcast touts the curveball as a plus pitch, giving opponents an “expected” .221 batting average, .293 slugging percentage and .240 wOBA against the pitch.

The rise of curveballs led to Kikuchi’s slider and changeup being some of the lowest rates of his career. All three of his non-fastball pitches are against loose ends this season. His heater averaged a career-high 95.6 mph despite Kikuchi hitting his age-33 season, but it remains a strikeout and has been his weakest pitches according to opponents. However, the inclusion of an active curveball also makes it difficult for opponents to stay on the heater.

In 11 starts this season, Kikuchi posted a 3.25 ERA. He has totaled 61 innings, striking out 24.1% of opponents against a team-leading 5.1% walk rate and keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 44.1% clip. Kikuchi is still giving up heavy contact (especially in that heater) and will see his little habit of a 7.7% homer-to-flyball ratio go up. The league average is usually 12-13%, and Kikuchi’s career mark is 17.4%. Even with a few more homers in his 2024 ledger, however, Kikuchi will look like a clear above-average starter.

And it’s not just the 2024 season that he’s worked on with this new offering. It’s now been almost a year since Kikuchi came up with a new curveball, and his numbers over the past calendar year may catch some observers by surprise. His 3.45 ERA ranks 12th among 78 starting pitchers, and he is 28th in total innings pitched (172 1/3). According to the FanGraphs version of WAR, which is calculated from his 3.09 FIP rather than his run prevention numbers, Kikuchi is the fifth most valuable pitcher in baseball. RA9-WAR, based solely on runs allowed (rather than FIP) has Kikuchi tied for 18th.

Regardless of one’s preferred way of evaluating pitchers, Kikuchi has been one of MLB’s top 10 to 20 starters over the past calendar year — a remarkable turnaround for someone who entered the 2023 campaign fighting for a rotation spot with the team whose rotation they now focus on.

Kikuchi’s gains are especially exciting given the Blue Jays’ disappointing 2024 campaign. Toronto currently sits at 26729 on the season, placing them in last place in the highly competitive AL East. They have won four straight but are still 11.5 games out of first place in the division and 4.5 games out of the Wild Card spot (with three teams standing between Toronto and third place, currently held by the Twins). The Blue Jays’ playoff chances are by no means shot, but they are undeniably slim compared to their preseason projections. There is already speculation about the potential of the sale, with terms like these Bo Bichette again Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the subject of certain desires.

But if the Jays end up selling, it’s Kikuchi — not Bichette, Guerrero, Chris Bassitt, etc. — who stands as Toronto’s most popular commercial property. He is playing out the final season of that three-year, $36MM deal and is earning what now looks like a reasonable $12MM salary. Most contending clubs should be able to pick up some or all of the salary remaining on his contract, though the Jays could always offer to pay it to make a profit. Kikuchi is committed to qualifying, so the Jays would need a fair amount of prospects to land in for a trade, but as long as he continues to approach his pace over the past 365 days, that’s also a reasonable question.

In addition, Kikuchi’s status as an upcoming free agent makes his last calendar year even more interesting. If he can make another 20 or so starts at this pace, he’ll hit the market after an impressive run and be able to stake his claim as one of the better mid-major starters on the market. He will not lift himself up and enter Corbin Burns or Fried Max Phases of the upcoming free agent market, but another lucrative three-year contract will apply. Both Bassitt and Sonny Gray he got three-year deals with annual values ​​in excess of $20MM that cover the same 34- to 36-year-old season that Kikuchi will be selling.

Kikuchi has a ways to go before he’s in that conversation, his transformation over the past year has put him right in that spot. It’s worth pointing out that he only lasted three innings during his first start, showing decreased velocity and failing to record a hit. That could be a red flag, but it could also be a blip on the radar. The Jays did not point to any type of medical problem for Kikuchi. We do not know if there is an injury, illness, pitch suggestion or simple fatigue, even if it was a new day for the left.

What we do know is that this past year, very few strikers have been more successful and more important than Kikuchi. Adding a new pitch isn’t always a ticket to greener pastures, but it certainly was for Kikuchi, who is shaping up to be a potential deadline hitter and a more attractive free agent than anyone could have expected last year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images


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